arXiv:2511.19497cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

提出PeriodNet,用周期注意力提升时间序列预测精度。

PeriodNet: Boosting the Potential of Attention Mechanism for Time Series Forecasting

  • 设计周期注意力与稀疏周期注意力,捕捉局部和周期性特征。
  • 在8个数据集上优于6种主流模型,长序列预测误差降低22%。
  • 适合需要高精度时间序列预测的工业、金融场景。

注意力机制在序列建模中展现巨大潜力,如BERT和GPT在自然语言处理中的成功应用。然而,在时间序列预测(TSF)领域其表现尚未达预期。本文提出PeriodNet,一种全新的网络结构,用于单变量和多变量时间序列预测。PeriodNet引入周期注意力与稀疏周期注意力机制,以分析相邻周期,增强对局部特征、周期模式及全局依赖的挖掘能力。为实现高效的跨变量建模,设计了迭代分组机制,可直接减少跨变量冗余。为充分挖掘编码器提取的特征,重构了原始Transformer架构,并提出周期扩散器,实现精确的多周期预测。在8个数据集上的综合实验表明,PeriodNet在均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)上均优于6种先进模型。尤其在序列长度为720时,相比传统编码器-解码器Transformer模型,相对改进达22%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The attention mechanism has demonstrated remarkable potential in sequence modeling, exemplified by its successful application in natural language processing with models such as Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT). Despite these advancements, its utilization in time series forecasting (TSF) has yet to meet expectations. Exploring a better network structure for attention in TSF holds immense significance across various domains. In this paper, we present PeriodNet with a brand new structure to forecast univariate and multivariate time series. PeriodNet incorporates period attention and sparse period attention mechanism for analyzing adjacent periods. It enhances the mining of local characteristics, periodic patterns, and global dependencies. For efficient cross-variable modeling, we introduce an iterative grouping mechanism which can directly reduce the cross-variable redundancy. To fully leverage the extracted features on the encoder side, we redesign the entire architecture of the vanilla Transformer and propose a period diffuser for precise multi-period prediction. Through comprehensive experiments conducted on eight datasets, we demonstrate that PeriodNet outperforms six state-of-the-art models in both univariate and multivariate TSF scenarios in terms of mean square error and mean absolute error. In particular, PeriodNet achieves a relative improvement of 22% when forecasting time series with a length of 720, in comparison to other models based on the conventional encoder-decoder Transformer architecture.

时间序列注意力机制周期建模预测

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