整合临床试验与真实世界数据,构建可信的下一代证据体系
Integrating RCTs, RWD, AI/ML and Statistics: Next-Generation Evidence Synthesis
- 提出六步统计框架,融合RCT、RWD、AI/ML与统计方法
- 强调在因果推断中评估数据适用性与控制偏倚的重要性
- 适合医药研发、监管机构及统计人员参考
随机对照试验(RCT)是临床证据的基石,但其成本高、周期长且入组标准严格,限制了外部有效性。真实世界数据(RWD)过去被认为难以确立因果关系,如今被视为真实世界证据(RWE)的重要来源。与此同时,人工智能与机器学习(AI/ML)在药物开发全流程中日益广泛应用,具备可扩展性和灵活性,但也带来可解释性与统计严谨性挑战。本文主张未来证据生成不应是RCT vs RWD或统计 vs AI/ML的对立,而应基于统计证据框架实现三者的系统整合,明确估计量、评估数据适配性、控制偏倚、量化不确定性,并判断证据是否足以支持决策。基于因果路线图,提出一个六步集成证据合成的统计路线图,并围绕五个核心问题展开讨论:何时RWD适合因果分析;AI在证据生命周期中真正贡献为何;哪些仍是统计学不可替代的环节;如何在制药、监管和产业环境中构建可信赖的端到端证据系统;以及统计教育应如何演进。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs)have been the cornerstone of clinical evidence; however, their cost, duration, and restrictive eligibility criteria limit power and external validity. Studies using real-world data (RWD), historically considered less reliable for establishing causality, are now recognized as an important source of real-world evidence (RWE). In parallel, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are increasingly used throughout the drug development process, providing scalability and flexibility but also presenting challenges in interpretability and statistical rigor. This Perspective argues that the future of evidence generation will not depend on RCTs versus RWD, or statistics versus AI/ML, but on their principled integration under a statistical evidence framework that clarifies estimands, evaluates data fitness, controls bias, quantifies uncertainty, and determines when evidence is strong enough to support decisions. Building on the Causal Roadmap for high-quality real-world evidence, we present a six-step statistical roadmap for integrative evidence synthesis and organize the discussion around five core questions that statisticians must confront: when RWD is fit for causal use and when it is not; what AI genuinely contributes across the evidence lifecycle; what remains distinctly statistical and indispensable; how to build trustworthy end-to-end evidence systems in pharmaceutical, regulatory, and industry settings; and how statistical training should evolve.
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