arXiv:2511.20189cs.LG2025-11AAAI被引 1

不依赖因果启发式,直接用结构因果模型发现最大治疗效应子群体。

Learning Subgroups with Maximum Treatment Effects without Causal Heuristics

  • 基于结构因果模型,将子群发现转化为标准监督学习问题。
  • 在合成与半合成数据上,准确率显著优于依赖启发式的基线方法。
  • 适合精准医疗、公共政策等需精准决策的领域使用。

发现具有最大平均治疗效应的子群体对精准医疗、公共政策和教育等领域的靶向决策至关重要。现有研究多在潜在结果框架下进行,但对应的结构因果模型(SCM)却未被充分探讨。实践中主要采用两类方法:一是先估计点态条件治疗效应,再拟合树模型,实质上将子群发现转化为更难的点态估计问题;二是构建决策树或规则集,使用临时的‘因果’启发式,缺乏严格依据且难以判断其必要性。本文在结构因果模型框架下直接研究该问题。在分块模型假设下,我们证明最优子群发现等价于恢复数据生成模型,因而可转化为标准的监督学习(回归或分类)问题。由此可任意采用分块方法从数据中学习子群。我们以广泛使用的CART为例,构建最大治疗效应子群。在大量合成与半合成数据集上的实验表明,本方法避免因果启发式,能更准确识别出具有最大治疗效应的子群体。源代码已公开于 https://github.com/ylincen/causal-subgroup。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Discovering subgroups with the maximum average treatment effect is crucial for targeted decision making in domains such as precision medicine, public policy, and education. While most prior work is formulated in the potential outcome framework, the corresponding structural causal model (SCM) for this task has been largely overlooked. In practice, two approaches dominate. The first estimates pointwise conditional treatment effects and then fits a tree on those estimates, effectively turning subgroup estimation into the harder problem of accurate pointwise estimation. The second constructs decision trees or rule sets with ad-hoc 'causal' heuristics, typically without rigorous justification for why a given heuristic may be used or whether such heuristics are necessary at all. We address these issues by studying the problem directly under the SCM framework. Under the assumption of a partition-based model, we show that optimal subgroup discovery reduces to recovering the data-generating models and hence a standard supervised learning problem (regression or classification). This allows us to adopt any partition-based methods to learn the subgroup from data. We instantiate the approach with CART, arguably one of the most widely used tree-based methods, to learn the subgroup with maximum treatment effect. Finally, on a large collection of synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, we compare our method against a wide range of baselines and find that our approach, which avoids such causal heuristics, more accurately identifies subgroups with maximum treatment effect. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ylincen/causal-subgroup.

因果推断子群发现决策树精准医疗

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