arXiv:2511.20963physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-11被引 3

用5万奖金竞赛激发众智,提升物理+机器学习气候模拟的在线稳定性。

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics-ML Climate Simulation via a $50,000 Kaggle Competition

  • 从竞赛获胜模型中提取架构,嵌入真实地理气候模型测试
  • 多种架构均实现稳定在线运行,且离线与在线偏差相似
  • 众包方案可有效提升混合模拟性能,适合气候建模与AI交叉研究者

亚网格机器学习参数化有望在不承担高分辨率物理模拟高昂计算成本的前提下,推动新一代气候模型发展。然而,从在线不稳定性到性能不一致等问题,仍限制其用于长期气候预测。为加速解决这些问题,领域科学家与机器学习研究者将该问题的离线部分开放给更广泛的机器学习与数据科学社区,发布了ClimSim数据集与基准(NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks发表),并举办了一场Kaggle竞赛。本文报告了该竞赛的后续成果:将受优胜团队架构启发的代理模型耦合至包含完整云微物理过程的交互式气候模型(历史上海量不稳定),系统评估其在线表现。结果表明,在低分辨率、真实地理条件下,多种不同架构均能实现可复现的在线稳定性,这被视为关键里程碑。所有测试架构表现出相似的离线与在线偏差,尽管它们对架构无关的设计选择(如扩展输入变量列表)响应差异显著。多个基于Kaggle的架构在特定指标上达到当前最优水平,如经向平均偏差模式和全局均方根误差,表明众包解决离线问题是一种提升混合物理-AI气候模拟在线性能的有效路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Subgrid machine-learning (ML) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and machine learning researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader machine learning and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution, real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global RMSE, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

气候模拟机器学习众包物理模型

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