arXiv:2511.21019cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

用生成对抗网络预测野火蔓延,更准且能捕捉复杂动态。

Probabilistic Wildfire Spread Prediction Using an Autoregressive Conditional Generative Adversarial Network

  • 采用自回归条件生成对抗网络建模火势逐时演变
  • 预测准确率与边界清晰度显著优于传统深度学习模型
  • 适合需要实时响应的火灾应急决策与疏散规划

气候变化加剧了野火的频率和严重性,快速准确地预测火势蔓延对有效应对至关重要。基于物理的模拟器如FARSITE虽精度高但计算成本大,难以用于实时决策;现有深度学习模型常产生过于平滑的预测,无法捕捉野火传播的复杂非线性特征。本文提出一种自回归条件生成对抗网络(CGAN),将预测任务建模为自回归问题,学习序列状态转移,确保长期预测稳定性。实验表明,该模型在整体预测精度和火场边界刻画上均优于传统深度学习模型。结果表明,对抗学习使模型能够捕捉野火蔓延的强非线性和不确定性,而非仅拟合像素均值。此外,自回归框架支持系统化的时序预测。所提出的CGAN自回归框架提升了野火蔓延预测的准确性和物理可解释性,为时间敏感的响应与疏散规划提供了有力支撑。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of wildfires, making rapid and accurate prediction of fire spread essential for effective mitigation and response. Physics-based simulators such as FARSITE offer high-fidelity predictions but are computationally intensive, limiting their applicability in real-time decision-making, while existing deep learning models often yield overly smooth predictions that fail to capture the complex, nonlinear dynamics of wildfire propagation. This study proposes an autoregressive conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN) for probabilistic wildfire spread prediction. By formulating the prediction task as an autoregressive problem, the model learns sequential state transitions, ensuring long-term prediction stability. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CGAN-based model outperforms conventional deep learning models in both overall predictive accuracy and boundary delineation of fire perimeters. These results demonstrate that adversarial learning allows the model to capture the strong nonlinearity and uncertainty of wildfire spread, instead of simply fitting the pixel average. Furthermore, the autoregressive framework facilitates systematic temporal forecasting of wildfire evolution. The proposed CGAN-based autoregressive framework enhances both the accuracy and physical interpretability of wildfire spread prediction, offering a promising foundation for time-sensitive response and evacuation planning.

野火预测生成对抗网络自回归模型气候风险

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