arXiv:2511.21208cs.LG2025-11被引 4

通过分组传感器构建健康指标,提升退化预测精度与可解释性。

I-GLIDE: Input Groups for Latent Health Indicators in Degradation Estimation

  • 按传感器分组建模特定退化机制,提升诊断针对性。
  • 结合蒙特卡洛丢弃与概率潜空间,量化不确定性,提升预测鲁棒性。
  • 适用于航空航天与制造系统的故障预警,支持可解释诊断。

准确的剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测依赖于健康指标(HI)的质量,但现有方法常无法解耦多传感器系统中的复杂退化机制,也难以量化HI可靠性中的不确定性。本文提出一种新型HI构建框架,实现三大贡献:首次将重构沿投影路径(RaPP)作为HI用于RUL预测,性能优于传统重构误差指标;通过蒙特卡洛丢弃与概率潜空间,为RaPP-derived HI引入偶然性和认知不确定性量化(UQ),显著提升预测鲁棒性;最核心的是提出指示符分组(indicator groups)范式,通过隔离传感器子集建模系统特异性退化,形成新方法I-GLIDE,实现可解释的机制级诊断。在航空与制造系统数据上评估,本方法相比现有先进HI方法,在准确性和泛化能力上均有显著提升,并提供系统失效路径的可操作洞察。该工作弥合了异常检测与预测之间的差距,为复杂系统提供了不确定性感知的退化建模原则框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

健康指标退化预测不确定性量化可解释性

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