arXiv:2511.21570cs.AIcs.CY2025-11被引 13

AI助力负责任的未来设计,增强政策制定的预见与伦理决策能力。

From Prediction to Foresight: The Role of AI in Designing Responsible Futures

  • 提出'负责任计算预见'框架,融合人本AI与模拟推演。
  • 强调跨系统耦合分析,支持可持续、有韧性的长期规划。
  • 适合政策制定者与社会科技伦理研究者参考。

在技术快速迭代与全球挑战交织的时代,负责任的预见已成为政策制定者应对未来不确定性、主动塑造未来的关键框架。本文提出‘负责任计算预见’概念,探讨人本人工智能与计算建模在推动该框架中的作用,确立了该新兴领域的一系列基础原则,并展示了一系列正在塑造该领域的AI驱动预见工具。AI结合仿真与情景分析,显著提升政策制定者应对不确定性、评估风险及制定可持续、有韧性策略的能力。然而,负责任的预见不仅限于技术预测,还需深入理解社会、环境、经济与政治系统的复杂关联,并坚持伦理导向的长期决策。本文主张,AI应作为辅助工具,补充而非替代政策判断,以支持人类智慧,主动构建兼具韧性与伦理正当性的未来。呼吁将AI审慎融入预见实践,赋能政策制定者与社区应对21世纪重大挑战。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and complex global challenges, responsible foresight has emerged as an essential framework for policymakers aiming to navigate future uncertainties and shape the future. Responsible foresight entails the ethical anticipation of emerging opportunities and risks, with a focus on fostering proactive, sustainable, and accountable future design. This paper coins the term "responsible computational foresight", examining the role of human-centric artificial intelligence and computational modeling in advancing responsible foresight, establishing a set of foundational principles for this new field and presenting a suite of AI-driven foresight tools currently shaping it. AI, particularly in conjunction with simulations and scenario analysis, enhances policymakers' ability to address uncertainty, evaluate risks, and devise strategies geared toward sustainable, resilient futures. However, responsible foresight extends beyond mere technical forecasting; it demands a nuanced understanding of the interdependencies within social, environmental, economic and political systems, alongside a commitment to ethical, long-term decision-making that supports human intelligence. We argue that AI will play a role as a supportive tool in responsible, human-centered foresight, complementing rather than substituting policymaker judgment to enable the proactive shaping of resilient and ethically sound futures. This paper advocates for the thoughtful integration of AI into foresight practices to empower policymakers and communities as they confront the grand challenges of the 21st century.

未来设计人本AI政策决策系统思维

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