通过观察结果随时间演变规律,无需知道网络结构也能估计因果效应。
On Evolution-Based Models for Experimentation Under Interference
- 用结果变化趋势替代网络结构,推断干预的间接影响
- 在随机干预下,能一致估计异质性溢出效应
- 适合社交网络、广告投放等存在隐蔽干扰的场景
在网络化系统中,对一个单元的干预可能影响其他单元,而复杂的物理或社会系统中干扰路径往往未知。我们提出,要识别群体层面的因果效应,并不需要恢复确切的网络结构,只需刻画交互如何推动结果演化。基于此思想,我们研究了一种基于演化的方法:通过观察干预后结果在多轮观测中的变化,弥补缺失的网络信息。借助暴露映射视角,我们给出了结果经验分布满足低维递归方程的公理化条件,并识别了此类演化映射存在的最小结构假设。该方法可视为差分法的分布版本:不假设个体路径平行,而是利用不同处理情境下结果演进模式的平行性来估计反事实轨迹。关键发现是,干预随机化不仅消除潜在混杂,还隐式地从隐藏的干扰通道中采样,从而实现异质溢出效应的一致学习。我们将因果消息传递作为密集网络中的实例,并推广至更一般的干扰结构,包括少数关键节点主导溢出的影响力网络。最后,我们指出该方法的局限:强时间趋势或内生干扰会破坏识别。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these interference structures remain largely unobserved. We argue that for identifying population-level causal effects, it is not necessary to recover the exact network structure; instead, it suffices to characterize how those interactions contribute to the evolution of outcomes. Building on this principle, we study an evolution-based approach that investigates how outcomes change across observation rounds in response to interventions, hence compensating for missing network information. Using an exposure-mapping perspective, we give an axiomatic characterization of when the empirical distribution of outcomes follows a low-dimensional recursive equation, and identify minimal structural conditions under which such evolution mappings exist. We frame this as a distributional counterpart to difference-in-differences. Rather than assuming parallel paths for individual units, it exploits parallel evolution patterns across treatment scenarios to estimate counterfactual trajectories. A key insight is that treatment randomization plays a role beyond eliminating latent confounding; it induces an implicit sampling from hidden interference channels, enabling consistent learning about heterogeneous spillover effects. We highlight causal message passing as an instantiation of this method in dense networks while extending to more general interference structures, including influencer networks where a small set of units drives most spillovers. Finally, we discuss the limits of this approach, showing that strong temporal trends or endogenous interference can undermine identification.
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