通过对比西乌两国，揭示制度归属如何决定长期发展路径。
Invited to Develop: Institutional Belonging and the Counterfactual Architecture of Development
- 构建基于经济复杂性的反事实框架，模拟不同制度嵌入的影响。
- 模拟显示，乌拉圭若融入欧洲体系可提升复杂性与韧性。
- 适合关注国际制度网络与发展战略的学者和政策制定者。
本文通过比较西班牙和乌拉圭这两个历史禀赋相似的小型民主国家，探讨制度归属如何影响长期发展。尽管两国在1960年代后发展轨迹分化显著——西班牙融入紧密的欧洲制度架构，而乌拉圭则深植于拉美治理体制，后者以协调薄弱、制度一致性低为特征——研究开发了一种生成式反事实框架，结合经济复杂性、制度路径依赖与训练于1960–2020年数据的Wasserstein GAN，量化了假想重新嵌入不同制度生态系统的结构收益或损失。反事实模拟表明，若西班牙处于拉美体系下，其发展将显著下滑；而乌拉圭若置身欧洲体系，则可实现更高程度的经济复杂性与系统韧性。研究指出，发展不仅取决于国内改革，更源于一国在跨国制度网络中的结构性位置。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper examines how institutional belonging shapes long-term development by comparing Spain and Uruguay, two small democracies with similar historical endowments whose trajectories diverged sharply after the 1960s. While Spain integrated into dense European institutional architectures, Uruguay remained embedded within the Latin American governance regime, characterized by weaker coordination and lower institutional coherence. To assess how alternative institutional embeddings could have altered these paths, the study develops a generative counterfactual framework grounded in economic complexity, institutional path dependence, and a Wasserstein GAN trained on data from 1960-2020. The resulting Expected Developmental Shift (EDS) quantifies structural gains or losses from hypothetical re-embedding in different institutional ecosystems. Counterfactual simulations indicate that Spain would have experienced significant developmental decline under a Latin American configuration, while Uruguay would have achieved higher complexity and resilience within a European regime. These findings suggest that development is not solely determined by domestic reforms but emerges from a country's structural position within transnational institutional networks.
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