arXiv:2511.21963cs.LG2025-11

用淘宝数据对比传统与深度模型,提升点击率预测效果。

CTR Prediction on Alibaba's Taobao Advertising Dataset Using Traditional and Deep Learning Models

  • 结合用户行为序列与静态特征,用Transformer捕捉点击时序规律。
  • Transformer模型相比逻辑回归提升2.81% AUC,尤其擅长多变兴趣用户。
  • 提出真实场景A/B测试方案,可拓展至健康信息精准推送。

点击率预测在现代广告系统中至关重要,直接影响排名相关性与用户参与度,进而决定平台效率与商业价值。本研究基于阿里巴巴发布的淘宝大规模数据集,探索更有效的CTR建模方法。首先使用逻辑回归和LightGBM等监督学习模型,基于用户人口统计、广告属性和上下文元数据等静态特征进行训练,提供快速可解释的基准。为更好建模用户意图,整合了22天内数亿次交互的行为数据,通过提取与编码用户行为序列,构建随时间演化的兴趣表示。采用深度学习模型融合行为嵌入与静态特征,其中多层感知机(MLPs)显著提升性能。进一步设计基于Transformer的架构,利用自注意力机制学习行为序列中的上下文依赖关系,不仅捕捉用户互动内容,还建模互动的时间与频率特性。该模型相较基线(逻辑回归)提升2.81% AUC,对兴趣多样或动态变化的用户改善最明显。此外,提出一套真实环境下的A/B测试评估策略。研究还探讨其更广泛意义:个性化广告定向技术可应用于公共卫生场景,实现健康信息或行为引导的精准投放。本工作为提升点击率预测能力并拓展其应用边界提供了可行路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Click-through rates prediction is critical in modern advertising systems, where ranking relevance and user engagement directly impact platform efficiency and business value. In this project, we explore how to model CTR more effectively using a large-scale Taobao dataset released by Alibaba. We start with supervised learning models, including logistic regression and Light-GBM, that are trained on static features such as user demographics, ad attributes, and contextual metadata. These models provide fast, interpretable benchmarks, but have limited capabilities to capture patterns of behavior that drive clicks. To better model user intent, we combined behavioral data from hundreds of millions of interactions over a 22-day period. By extracting and encoding user action sequences, we construct representations of user interests over time. We use deep learning models to fuse behavioral embeddings with static features. Among them, multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) have achieved significant performance improvements. To capture temporal dynamics, we designed a Transformer-based architecture that uses a self-attention mechanism to learn contextual dependencies across behavioral sequences, modeling not only what the user interacts with, but also the timing and frequency of interactions. Transformer improves AUC by 2.81 % over the baseline (LR model), with the largest gains observed for users whose interests are diverse or change over time. In addition to modeling, we propose an A/B testing strategy for real-world evaluation. We also think about the broader implications: personalized ad targeting technology can be applied to public health scenarios to achieve precise delivery of health information or behavior guidance. Our research provides a roadmap for advancing click-through rate predictions and extending their value beyond e-commerce.

点击率预测Transformer行为建模A/B测试

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