arXiv:2511.22031cs.LGcs.AI2025-11中稿 · NeurIPS

用AI预测用电对公共健康的影响,助力绿色能源管理

Predicting Public Health Impacts of Electricity Usage

  • 构建三阶段AI模型,从用电量推导健康损害
  • 相比传统方法,健康预测误差显著降低
  • 可指导电动车充电等场景的健康友好调度

电力行业是空气污染物排放的主要来源,影响几乎每个社区的公共健康。尽管监管措施已减少污染物排放,化石燃料仍占能源供应的重要部分,凸显了发展更先进需求侧管理手段的必要性。为实现健康导向的需求侧管理,我们提出HealthPredictor——一种领域特定的AI模型,提供从用电行为到公共健康结果的端到端分析流程。该模型包含三个模块:燃料构成预测器,用于估算不同发电方式的贡献;空气质量转换器,模拟污染物排放与大气扩散;健康影响评估器,将污染物变化转化为货币化的健康损失。在美国多个地区测试表明,基于健康驱动的优化框架在预测公共健康影响方面的误差显著低于依赖燃料构成的基线方法。以电动汽车充电调度为例,展示了本方法带来的公共健康收益及可操作的管理建议。整体上,该研究证明了专为健康影响设计的AI模型,可在提升公共健康与社会福祉方面发挥关键作用。数据与代码已公开于:https://github.com/Ren-Research/Health-Impact-Predictor。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The electric power sector is a leading source of air pollutant emissions, impacting the public health of nearly every community. Although regulatory measures have reduced air pollutants, fossil fuels remain a significant component of the energy supply, highlighting the need for more advanced demand-side approaches to reduce the public health impacts. To enable health-informed demand-side management, we introduce HealthPredictor, a domain-specific AI model that provides an end-to-end pipeline linking electricity use to public health outcomes. The model comprises three components: a fuel mix predictor that estimates the contribution of different generation sources, an air quality converter that models pollutant emissions and atmospheric dispersion, and a health impact assessor that translates resulting pollutant changes into monetized health damages. Across multiple regions in the United States, our health-driven optimization framework yields substantially lower prediction errors in terms of public health impacts than fuel mix-driven baselines. A case study on electric vehicle charging schedules illustrates the public health gains enabled by our method and the actionable guidance it can offer for health-informed energy management. Overall, this work shows how AI models can be explicitly designed to enable health-informed energy management for advancing public health and broader societal well-being. Our datasets and code are released at: https://github.com/Ren-Research/Health-Impact-Predictor.

健康影响能源管理AI建模

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