提出新框架,让时间序列预测变化更可解释。
Delta-XAI: A Unified Framework for Explaining Prediction Changes in Online Time Series Monitoring
- 用包装函数适配14种XAI方法,捕捉时间依赖性。
- 新方法SWING利用历史数据提升解释准确性,优于传统方法。
- 适合医疗、金融等需实时决策的场景,评估体系完备。
在线时间序列监控模型的可解释性在医疗、金融等敏感领域至关重要,其预测动态受时间与上下文影响。现有XAI方法多独立分析每个时间步,忽视时间依赖性,导致解释预测变化困难、难以利用在线动态、评估不统一。为此,我们提出Delta-XAI框架,通过封装函数适配14种现有XAI方法,并构建系统性评估体系,涵盖忠实性、充分性与一致性等维度。实验表明,经适配的梯度类方法(如Integrated Gradients, IG)在时间分析中表现优于近期方法。在此基础上,我们提出Shifted Window Integrated Gradients (SWING),将历史观测纳入积分路径,系统建模时间依赖性并缓解分布外效应。在多种设置下,SWING在多项指标上均表现优异。代码已开源:https://github.com/AITRICS/Delta-XAI。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Explaining online time series monitoring models is crucial across sensitive domains such as healthcare and finance, where temporal and contextual prediction dynamics underpin critical decisions. While recent XAI methods have improved the explainability of time series models, they mostly analyze each time step independently, overlooking temporal dependencies. This results in further challenges: explaining prediction changes is non-trivial, methods fail to leverage online dynamics, and evaluation remains difficult. To address these challenges, we propose Delta-XAI, which adapts 14 existing XAI methods through a wrapper function and introduces a principled evaluation suite for the online setting, assessing diverse aspects, such as faithfulness, sufficiency, and coherence. Experiments reveal that classical gradient-based methods, such as Integrated Gradients (IG), can outperform recent approaches when adapted for temporal analysis. Building on this, we propose Shifted Window Integrated Gradients (SWING), which incorporates past observations in the integration path to systematically capture temporal dependencies and mitigate out-of-distribution effects. Extensive experiments consistently demonstrate the effectiveness of SWING across diverse settings with respect to diverse metrics. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/AITRICS/Delta-XAI.
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