arXiv:2512.00222math.STcs.LG2025-12被引 4

LinUCB自适应采样下可实现渐近正态,支持可靠统计推断。

Statistical Inference under Adaptive Sampling with LinUCB

  • 通过分析特征协方差矩阵的特征值与特征向量,揭示其分解结构
  • 估计误差服从渐近正态分布,收敛速率达T^{-1/4}
  • 无需依赖协方差矩阵,适用于高维线性带宽问题

自适应采样数据在现代实践中已无处不在。然而,即使是看似无害的采样策略也可能引入严重偏差,使传统统计推断工具失效。这一问题可通过‘稳定性’性质缓解:若算法采取动作的速率收敛到确定性极限,则某些参数具渐近正态性。本文基于多臂老虎机研究进展,证明线性上置信界(LinUCB)算法在线性带宽设置中满足该性质。我们细致刻画了动作集为单位球时随机设计特征协方差矩阵的特征值与特征向量行为,发现其可分解为一个锁定真实参数的秩一方向和一个近似各向同性的主体部分,后者以√T速率增长。由此建立了LinUCB的中心极限定理,证明估计误差的极限分布为渐近正态,收敛速度为T^{-1/4}。由此得到的Wald型置信集与假设检验不依赖特征协方差矩阵,且渐近优于现有非渐近置信集。数值模拟验证了结论。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Adaptively collected data has become ubiquitous within modern practice. However, even seemingly benign adaptive sampling schemes can introduce severe biases, rendering traditional statistical inference tools inapplicable. This can be mitigated by a property called stability, which states that if the rate at which an algorithm takes actions converges to a deterministic limit, one can expect that certain parameters are asymptotically normal. Building on a recent line of work for the multi-armed bandit setting, we show that the linear upper confidence bound (LinUCB) algorithm for linear bandits satisfies this property. In doing so, we painstakingly characterize the behavior of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the random design feature covariance matrix in the setting where the action set is the unit ball, showing that it decomposes into a rank-one direction that locks onto the true parameter and an almost-isotropic bulk that grows at a predictable $\sqrt{T}$ rate. This allows us to establish a central limit theorem for the LinUCB algorithm, establishing asymptotic normality for the limiting distribution of the estimation error where the convergence occurs at a $T^{-1/4}$ rate. The resulting Wald-type confidence sets and hypothesis tests do not depend on the feature covariance matrix and are asymptotically tighter than existing nonasymptotic confidence sets. Numerical simulations corroborate our findings.

统计推断自适应采样线性带宽渐近正态

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。