arXiv:2512.00342cs.LGcs.SY2025-12

提出在线离线联合学习理论,提升非线性动态系统预测性能

Adaptive prediction theory combining offline and online learning

  • 分两阶段:先离线学习,再在线自适应调整
  • 理论证明在数据相关性强、分布漂移时仍具泛化能力
  • 适合需要长期稳定预测的实时智能系统

现实中的智能系统通常结合离线学习与在线适应处理高度相关且非平稳的数据或信号,但此类问题在理论上尚未得到充分研究。本文首次对一类非线性随机动力系统中,结合离线与在线算法的两阶段学习框架的预测性能进行理论分析。在离线学习阶段,针对具有强相关性和分布偏移的一般数据集,利用KL散度量化分布差异,建立了近似非线性最小二乘估计的泛化误差上界。在在线适应阶段,基于离线训练模型,针对真实目标系统中可能存在的参数漂移,提出一种元LMS预测算法。该两阶段框架在预测性能上优于纯离线或纯在线方法。本文同时提供了理论保证与实验验证。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-world intelligence systems usually operate by combining offline learning and online adaptation with highly correlated and non-stationary system data or signals, which, however, has rarely been investigated theoretically in the literature. This paper initiates a theoretical investigation on the prediction performance of a two-stage learning framework combining offline and online algorithms for a class of nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. For the offline-learning phase, we establish an upper bound on the generalization error for approximate nonlinear-least-squares estimation under general datasets with strong correlation and distribution shift, leveraging the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the distributional discrepancies. For the online-adaptation phase, we address, on the basis of the offline-trained model, the possible uncertain parameter drift in real-world target systems by proposing a meta-LMS prediction algorithm. This two-stage framework, integrating offline learning with online adaptation, demonstrates superior prediction performances compared with either purely offline or online methods. Both theoretical guarantees and empirical studies are provided.

在线学习离线学习预测理论动态系统

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