arXiv:2512.00851cs.LGcs.CY2025-12

一个轻量城市条件记忆层,让模型跨城市预测更准、数据少时也有效。

City-Conditioned Memory for Multi-City Traffic and Mobility Forecasting

  • 用城市编号编码+共享记忆库,动态调整模型特征以适配不同城市
  • 在全数据和低数据场景下均提升准确率,尤其对Transformer等大模型效果显著
  • 无需改主干网络,适合快速部署到新城市,特别适合数据稀疏场景

在多个城市部署时空预测模型面临挑战:交通网络规模与拓扑各异,数据可用性相差数个数量级,新城市可能仅有短期日志。现有深度交通模型通常需按城市单独训练,维护成本高且难以迁移到数据稀缺城市。本文提出CityCond——一种轻量的城市条件记忆层,可嵌入现有时空主干网络。它结合城市ID编码器与可选共享记忆库(CityMem),根据城市索引和主干隐藏状态生成城市条件特征,通过门控残差连接融合。将CityCond接入五种代表性主干(GRU、TCN、Transformer、GNN、STGCN),在METR-LA和PEMS-BAY上评估全数据、低数据及跨城市少样本迁移三种场景,并在天津信号交叉口的无人机多智能体轨迹数据集SIND上进行辅助实验(聚焦行人轨迹)。超过十四种模型变体与三个随机种子下,CityCond均带来一致提升,对Transformer和STGCN等高容量主干效果最显著;在全数据下CityMem使Transformer误差降低约三分之一,且在低数据与跨城市迁移中表现突出。在SIND上,简单城市ID条件可小幅提升低数据LSTM性能。因此,CityCond可作为可复用的设计模式,支持在真实数据约束下实现可扩展的多城市预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deploying spatio-temporal forecasting models across many cities is difficult: traffic networks differ in size and topology, data availability can vary by orders of magnitude, and new cities may provide only a short history of logs. Existing deep traffic models are typically trained per city and backbone, creating high maintenance cost and poor transfer to data-scarce cities. We ask whether a single, backbone-agnostic layer can condition on "which city this sequence comes from", improve accuracy in full- and low-data regimes, and support better cross-city adaptation with minimal code changes. We propose CityCond, a light-weight city-conditioned memory layer that augments existing spatio-temporal backbones. CityCond combines a city-ID encoder with an optional shared memory bank (CityMem). Given a city index and backbone hidden states, it produces city-conditioned features fused through gated residual connections. We attach CityCond to five representative backbones (GRU, TCN, Transformer, GNN, STGCN) and evaluate three regimes: full-data, low-data, and cross-city few-shot transfer on METR-LA and PEMS-BAY. We also run auxiliary experiments on SIND, a drone-based multi-agent trajectory dataset from a signalized intersection in Tianjin (we focus on pedestrian tracks). Across more than fourteen model variants and three random seeds, CityCond yields consistent improvements, with the largest gains for high-capacity backbones such as Transformers and STGCNs. CityMem reduces Transformer error by roughly one third in full-data settings and brings substantial gains in low-data and cross-city transfer. On SIND, simple city-ID conditioning modestly improves low-data LSTM performance. CityCond can therefore serve as a reusable design pattern for scalable, multi-city forecasting under realistic data constraints.

交通预测跨城市小样本记忆模块

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