arXiv:2512.01333cs.CVcs.LG2025-12被引 2

用集成学习与可解释AI,精准预测中风风险并找出关键因素。

Optimizing Stroke Risk Prediction: A Machine Learning Pipeline Combining ROS-Balanced Ensembles and XAI

  • 融合随机森林、极端梯度提升等模型,结合过采样处理数据不平衡。
  • 在中风预测数据集上达到99.09%准确率,显著优于多数基线模型。
  • 通过LIME识别出年龄、高血压、血糖为三大关键风险因子,适合临床应用。

中风是导致死亡和永久残疾的主要原因,早期风险评估对及时干预至关重要。本文构建了一个可解释的机器学习框架,结合集成建模与可解释AI(XAI)技术进行中风风险预测。采用5折交叉验证,在多个数据集上评估了10种机器学习模型,包含特征工程与数据预处理(使用随机过采样(ROS)解决类别不平衡问题)。优化后的集成模型(随机森林 + ExtraTrees + XGBoost)在中风预测数据集(SPD)上取得99.09%的准确率。通过基于LIME的可解释性分析,识别出三个关键临床变量:年龄、高血压和血糖水平。研究证明,将集成学习与可解释AI结合,能实现高精度且可理解的中风风险预测,助力数据驱动的预防策略与个性化临床决策,有望推动心血管风险管理的智能化升级。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Stroke is a major cause of death and permanent impairment, making it a major worldwide health concern. For prompt intervention and successful preventative tactics, early risk assessment is essential. To address this challenge, we used ensemble modeling and explainable AI (XAI) techniques to create an interpretable machine learning framework for stroke risk prediction. A thorough evaluation of 10 different machine learning models using 5-fold cross-validation across several datasets was part of our all-inclusive strategy, which also included feature engineering and data pretreatment (using Random Over-Sampling (ROS) to solve class imbalance). Our optimized ensemble model (Random Forest + ExtraTrees + XGBoost) performed exceptionally well, obtaining a strong 99.09% accuracy on the Stroke Prediction Dataset (SPD). We improved the model's transparency and clinical applicability by identifying three important clinical variables using LIME-based interpretability analysis: age, hypertension, and glucose levels. Through early prediction, this study highlights how combining ensemble learning with explainable AI (XAI) can deliver highly accurate and interpretable stroke risk assessment. By enabling data-driven prevention and personalized clinical decisions, our framework has the potential to transform stroke prediction and cardiovascular risk management.

中风预测集成学习可解释AI临床决策

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