动态调整威胁模型的鲁棒决策框架,提升无人侦察任务安全性与效率
Bayesian Ambiguity Contraction-based Adaptive Robust Markov Decision Processes for Adversarial Surveillance Missions
- 基于贝叶斯模糊收缩机制,实时更新威胁模型并优化策略
- 在多种网络拓扑下任务奖励提升23%以上,暴露事件减少41%
- 适合对抗环境中需自适应决策的自主无人机系统
协同作战飞机(CCAs)被设想用于对抗环境下自主执行情报、监视与侦察(ISR)任务,但敌方可能采取策略性行动进行欺骗或规避探测。此类任务面临模型不确定性及安全、实时决策的需求。鲁棒马尔可夫决策过程(RMDP)虽能提供最坏情况保证,却受限于静态模糊集,无法随新观测更新初始不确定性。本文提出一种面向ISR任务的自适应RMDP框架。我们设计了特定于任务的建模方式,使飞机在移动与感知状态间交替。敌方战术被建模为一组有限转移核,每种捕捉对敌方探测或环境条件影响收益的假设。通过逐步剔除不一致的威胁模型,该方法使智能体在保持鲁棒性的同时,从保守转向激进行为。理论分析表明,自适应规划器在可信集收缩至真实威胁时收敛,并维持不确定性下的安全性。在高斯与非高斯威胁模型下,跨多样网络拓扑的实验显示,相较常规与静态鲁棒规划器,本方法任务奖励更高,暴露事件更少。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) are envisioned to enable autonomous Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions in contested environments, where adversaries may act strategically to deceive or evade detection. These missions pose challenges due to model uncertainty and the need for safe, real-time decision-making. Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) provide worst-case guarantees but are limited by static ambiguity sets that capture initial uncertainty without adapting to new observations. This paper presents an adaptive RMDP framework tailored to ISR missions with CCAs. We introduce a mission-specific formulation in which aircraft alternate between movement and sensing states. Adversarial tactics are modeled as a finite set of transition kernels, each capturing assumptions about how adversarial sensing or environmental conditions affect rewards. Our approach incrementally refines policies by eliminating inconsistent threat models, allowing agents to shift from conservative to aggressive behaviors while maintaining robustness. We provide theoretical guarantees showing that the adaptive planner converges as credible sets contract to the true threat and maintains safety under uncertainty. Experiments under Gaussian and non-Gaussian threat models across diverse network topologies show higher mission rewards and fewer exposure events compared to nominal and static robust planners.
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