arXiv:2512.01880cs.AI2025-12被引 4

用分技能组的n-gram模型预测人类下棋走法,更贴近真实对局行为。

Predicting Human Chess Moves: An AI Assisted Analysis of Chess Games Using Skill-group Specific n-gram Language Models

  • 按七档技能水平分组,训练专属n-gram模型捕捉走法模式。
  • 早期16回合内识别技能等级准确率达31.7%,预测精度比基准高39.1%。
  • 轻量高效,适合实时棋局分析,尤其适合研究人类决策差异。

国际象棋作为完全信息、确定性游戏,长期被用作战略决策与人工智能研究的基准。传统棋类引擎或分析工具主要聚焦于计算最优着法,常忽略人类下棋中因技能水平不同而产生的行为变异性。为此,本文提出一种新颖且计算高效的走法预测框架,将走法预测视为行为分析任务。该框架采用n-gram语言模型,捕捉特定玩家技能水平下的走法模式。通过将玩家划分为从初学者到专家的七个技能组,利用开源平台Lichess的数据分别训练模型。框架可动态选择最适配的模型进行预测,并基于前序走法序列生成后续着法。在真实棋局数据上的评估表明,框架中的模型选择模块在仅使用前16个半回合信息时,即可实现最高达31.7%的技能等级分类准确率。同时,该走法预测框架相较基准模型,在准确率上提升高达39.1%。框架的计算效率进一步增强了其在实时棋局分析中的适用性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Chess, a deterministic game with perfect information, has long served as a benchmark for studying strategic decision-making and artificial intelligence. Traditional chess engines or tools for analysis primarily focus on calculating optimal moves, often neglecting the variability inherent in human chess playing, particularly across different skill levels. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel and computationally efficient move prediction framework that approaches chess move prediction as a behavioral analysis task. The framework employs n-gram language models to capture move patterns characteristic of specific player skill levels. By dividing players into seven distinct skill groups, from novice to expert, we trained separate models using data from the open-source chess platform Lichess. The framework dynamically selects the most suitable model for prediction tasks and generates player moves based on preceding sequences. Evaluation on real-world game data demonstrates that the model selector module within the framework can classify skill levels with an accuracy of up to 31.7\% when utilizing early game information (16 half-moves). The move prediction framework also shows substantial accuracy improvements, with our Selector Assisted Accuracy being up to 39.1\% more accurate than our benchmark accuracy. The computational efficiency of the framework further enhances its suitability for real-time chess analysis.

棋类AI行为建模n-gram技能分组

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