arXiv:2512.02037q-fin.STcs.AI2025-12被引 1

用深度学习重构股票对,实现波兰股市套利交易

Statistical Arbitrage in Polish Equities Market Using Deep Learning Techniques

  • 用LSTM网络构建资产复制模型,替代传统配对标的
  • 2017-2019年年化夏普比率最高达2.63,累计收益约20%
  • 新冠疫情期间仅ETF方法盈利,显示鲁棒性差异

本文研究一种系统化的统计套利方法——配对交易。不同于依赖高度相关资产的传统方式,本文将第二只资产替换为通过风险因子表示复制的第一只资产。这些因子由主成分分析(PCA)、交易所交易基金(ETF)以及本文主要贡献的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)获得。检验主资产与其复制资产之间的残差是否具有均值回归特性,并为均值回归速度快的组合生成交易信号。除提出基于深度学习的复制方法外,还将Avellaneda和Lee(2008)框架适配至波兰市场,以WIG20、mWIG40及部分行业指数替代原S&P500样本池,同时更新无风险利率与交易成本等本地市场参数。完整策略流程包括:风险因子构建、残差建模(采用Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程)与信号生成。每种复制方法均详细描述其实际实现。策略在2017–2019年期间所有方法均盈利,其中PCA方法累计收益约20%,年化夏普比率最高达2.63;2020年疫情衰退期仅ETF方法保持盈利(年化约5%),而PCA与LSTM方法表现不佳。尽管LSTM结果为负,但仍具前景,暗示未来优化潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We study a systematic approach to a popular Statistical Arbitrage technique: Pairs Trading. Instead of relying on two highly correlated assets, we replace the second asset with a replication of the first using risk factor representations. These factors are obtained through Principal Components Analysis (PCA), exchange traded funds (ETFs), and, as our main contribution, Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTMs). Residuals between the main asset and its replication are examined for mean reversion properties, and trading signals are generated for sufficiently fast mean reverting portfolios. Beyond introducing a deep learning based replication method, we adapt the framework of Avellaneda and Lee (2008) to the Polish market. Accordingly, components of WIG20, mWIG40, and selected sector indices replace the original S&P500 universe, and market parameters such as the risk free rate and transaction costs are updated to reflect local conditions. We outline the full strategy pipeline: risk factor construction, residual modeling via the Ornstein Uhlenbeck process, and signal generation. Each replication technique is described together with its practical implementation. Strategy performance is evaluated over two periods: 2017-2019 and the recessive year 2020. All methods yield profits in 2017-2019, with PCA achieving roughly 20 percent cumulative return and an annualized Sharpe ratio of up to 2.63. Despite multiple adaptations, our conclusions remain consistent with those of the original paper. During the COVID-19 recession, only the ETF based approach remains profitable (about 5 percent annual return), while PCA and LSTM methods underperform. LSTM results, although negative, are promising and indicate potential for future optimization.

统计套利深度学习金融市场量化交易

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