分析四类定价算法在不同市场中的串谋行为,揭示波动如何影响自动定价竞争。
How Market Volatility Shapes Algorithmic Collusion: A Comparative Analysis of Learning-Based Pricing Algorithms
- 对比四种强化学习算法在三种市场模型中的表现
- 需求稳定时算法普遍维持高价,DDPG串谋最明显
- 市场结构与波动性共同决定算法竞争结果,适合政策研究者参考
自主定价算法正日益影响数字市场的竞争格局,但其在真实需求条件下的行为仍缺乏系统研究。本文对四种定价算法(Q-Learning、PSO、Double DQN、DDPG)在三种经典双寡头模型(Logit、Hotelling、Linear)下,以及由自回归过程生成的多种需求冲击情境中进行了全面分析。通过利润和价格基于的串谋指数,探究算法交互、市场结构与随机需求如何共同影响竞争结果。研究发现,在需求稳定时,强化学习算法常维持超竞争性价格,其中DDPG表现出最强的串谋倾向。需求冲击产生显著差异:Logit市场性能大幅下降,Hotelling市场保持稳定,Linear市场则出现冲击引发的利润膨胀。尽管绝对表现变化明显,算法相对排名在不同环境下保持一致。结果强调了市场结构与需求不确定性在塑造算法竞争中的关键作用,同时为自主定价行为的政策讨论提供依据。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Autonomous pricing algorithms are increasingly influencing competition in digital markets; however, their behavior under realistic demand conditions remains largely unexamined. This paper offers a thorough analysis of four pricing algorithms -- Q-Learning, PSO, Double DQN, and DDPG -- across three classic duopoly models (Logit, Hotelling, Linear) and under various demand-shock regimes created by auto-regressive processes. By utilizing profit- and price-based collusion indices, we investigate how the interactions among algorithms, market structure, and stochastic demand collaboratively influence competitive outcomes. Our findings reveal that reinforcement-learning algorithms often sustain supra-competitive prices under stable demand, with DDPG demonstrating the most pronounced collusive tendencies. Demand shocks produce notably varied effects: Logit markets suffer significant performance declines, Hotelling markets remain stable, and Linear markets experience shock-induced profit inflation. Despite marked changes in absolute performance, the relative rankings of the algorithms are consistent across different environments. These results underscore the critical importance of market structure and demand uncertainty in shaping algorithmic competition, while also contributing to the evolving policy discussions surrounding autonomous pricing behavior.
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