arXiv:2512.02268cs.CVcs.AI2025-12被引 4

用分层时空流模型实现快速多尺度气候模拟,支持高效并行采样。

Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flow Matching for Climate Emulation

  • 构建分层时空金字塔结构,逐级提升分辨率并匹配时间尺度
  • 在ClimateBench上比基线模型快3倍以上,年/月尺度性能更优
  • 适用于气候干预模拟,适合气候建模与政策评估研究者

生成模型有望变革气候模拟方式。以往方法依赖天气尺度自回归,计算慢且在非平稳强迫下不稳定。本文提出时空金字塔流(SPF),通过分层建模空间与时间尺度,将生成轨迹划分为金字塔结构,逐步提高空间分辨率,并为各层级配置对应时间尺度,实现任意时间层级的直接采样。结合预设物理强迫(如温室气体、气溶胶)条件,SPF可在多时间尺度下实现高效并行气候模拟。在ClimateBench上,SPF在年、月尺度上优于强基线和预训练模型,尤其在粗粒度时间层级采样速度更快。为扩展模型能力,我们构建ClimateSuite——迄今最大地球系统模拟数据集,含10个气候模型超过3.3万年模拟数据,并首次包含气候干预模拟。经验证,缩放后的SPF模型对未见情景具有良好泛化能力。SPF与ClimateSuite共同构成跨时间尺度、真实未来情景下的精准、高效概率气候模拟基础。代码与数据公开于https://github.com/stanfordmlgroup/spf。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Generative models have the potential to transform the way we emulate Earth's changing climate. Previous generative approaches rely on weather-scale autoregression for climate emulation, but this is inherently slow for long climate horizons and has yet to demonstrate stable rollouts under nonstationary forcings. Here, we introduce Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF), a new class of flow matching approaches that model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales. Inspired by cascaded video models, SPF partitions the generative trajectory into a spatiotemporal pyramid, progressively increasing spatial resolution to reduce computation and coupling each stage with an associated timescale to enable direct sampling at any temporal level in the pyramid. This design, together with conditioning each stage on prescribed physical forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases or aerosols), enables efficient, parallel climate emulation at multiple timescales. On ClimateBench, SPF outperforms strong flow matching baselines and pre-trained models at yearly and monthly timescales while offering fast sampling, especially at coarser temporal levels. To scale SPF, we curate ClimateSuite, the largest collection of Earth system simulations to date, comprising over 33,000 simulation-years across ten climate models and the first dataset to include simulations of climate interventions. We find that the scaled SPF model demonstrates good generalization to held-out scenarios across climate models. Together, SPF and ClimateSuite provide a foundation for accurate, efficient, probabilistic climate emulation across temporal scales and realistic future scenarios. Data and code is publicly available at https://github.com/stanfordmlgroup/spf .

气候模拟生成模型流匹配多尺度

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