针对自相关数据,提出快速高斯过程近似方法,提升计算效率且不牺牲预测性能。
Fast Gaussian Process Approximations for Autocorrelated Data
- 将自相关数据分块去相关后,适配现有快速近似算法
- 实验显示计算速度显著提升,预测效果与原模型相当
- 适合处理时间序列等存在自相关的高斯过程建模任务
本文研究如何加速自相关数据上高斯过程模型的计算。高斯过程是常用于非线性回归的强大工具,标准回归假设样本独立同分布,噪声也独立。现有的快速近似方法在此假设下有效,但对自相关数据若不考虑相关性,会导致时间过拟合,降低新样本的泛化性能。为处理自相关数据,需对现有快速近似方法进行修改;一种方法是将原始相关数据点分块,使块内数据去相关。本文阐明如何使部分现有高斯过程近似方法适用于分块后的数据。在多个应用数据集上的数值实验表明,所提方法能显著加速自相关数据上的高斯过程回归,且不降低预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper is concerned with the problem of how to speed up computation for Gaussian process models trained on autocorrelated data. The Gaussian process model is a powerful tool commonly used in nonlinear regression applications. Standard regression modeling assumes random samples and an independently, identically distributed noise. Various fast approximations that speed up Gaussian process regression work under this standard setting. But for autocorrelated data, failing to account for autocorrelation leads to a phenomenon known as temporal overfitting that deteriorates model performance on new test instances. To handle autocorrelated data, existing fast Gaussian process approximations have to be modified; one such approach is to segment the originally correlated data points into blocks in which the blocked data are de-correlated. This work explains how to make some of the existing Gaussian process approximations work with blocked data. Numerical experiments across diverse application datasets demonstrate that the proposed approaches can remarkably accelerate computation for Gaussian process regression on autocorrelated data without compromising model prediction performance.
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