arXiv:2512.03102cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 1

用扩散机制动态修正早期错误状态估计,避免因先验偏差导致的纠错失效。

Dynamic Correction of Erroneous State Estimates via Diffusion Bayesian Exploration

  • 通过熵正则采样和协方差缩放扩散扩展后验支持范围
  • 在气体泄漏定位任务中,误设先验时性能显著优于传统方法
  • 具备理论保证,适合高风险场景中的实时状态修正

在应急响应等高风险社会应用中,早期状态估计直接影响后续决策。然而,基于有限或有偏信息的初始估计可能严重偏离真实情况,导致行动受限、资源错配甚至人员伤亡。在静态重采样基准下,粒子滤波器存在稳态诱导后验支持不变性(S-PSI),即初始先验排除的区域永远无法探索,即使新证据与当前信念矛盾也无法纠正。传统扰动虽可打破僵局,但持续开启效率低下。为此,我们提出一种扩散驱动的贝叶斯探索框架(DEPF),通过熵正则采样与协方差缩放扩散扩展后验支持,结合Metropolis-Hastings验证确保提议合理性,实现自适应推理。在真实危险气体定位任务上的实证表明:当先验正确时,性能媲美强化学习与规划基线;在先验错位情况下,显著超越经典SMC扰动与基于RL的方法,并提供理论证明其可消除S-PSI且保持统计严谨性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In emergency response and other high-stakes societal applications, early-stage state estimates critically shape downstream outcomes. Yet, these initial state estimates-often based on limited or biased information-can be severely misaligned with reality, constraining subsequent actions and potentially causing catastrophic delays, resource misallocation, and human harm. Under the stationary bootstrap baseline (zero transition and no rejuvenation), bootstrap particle filters exhibit Stationarity-Induced Posterior Support Invariance (S-PSI), wherein regions excluded by the initial prior remain permanently unexplorable, making corrections impossible even when new evidence contradicts current beliefs. While classical perturbations can in principle break this lock-in, they operate in an always-on fashion and may be inefficient. To overcome this, we propose a diffusion-driven Bayesian exploration framework that enables principled, real-time correction of early state estimation errors. Our method expands posterior support via entropy-regularized sampling and covariance-scaled diffusion. A Metropolis-Hastings check validates proposals and keeps inference adaptive to unexpected evidence. Empirical evaluations on realistic hazardous-gas localization tasks show that our approach matches reinforcement learning and planning baselines when priors are correct. It substantially outperforms classical SMC perturbations and RL-based methods under misalignment, and we provide theoretical guarantees that DEPF resolves S-PSI while maintaining statistical rigor.

贝叶斯推断状态估计扩散模型应急响应

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