用贝叶斯神经网络实时区分结构健康监测中的两种不确定性。
Real-Time Structural Health Monitoring with Bayesian Neural Networks: Distinguishing Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty for Digital Twin Frameworks
- 结合PCA与贝叶斯神经网络,从稀疏传感器数据重建全场应变并量化不确定性。
- 在碳纤维试件上实现应变场重构R² > 0.9,同时生成实时不确定性图谱。
- 可定位低置信区域是数据噪声还是模型缺陷所致,适合高价值结构诊断。
高价值资产的结构健康监测(SHM)需要可靠的实时传感数据分析,但关键挑战在于获得空间分辨的全场随机性与认知性不确定性以支持可信决策。本文提出集成框架,融合主成分分析(PCA)、贝叶斯神经网络(BNN)与哈密顿蒙特卡洛(HMC)推断,将稀疏应变计测量映射至主要PCA模态,重建全场应变分布并进行不确定性量化。通过不同裂纹长度的碳纤维增强聚合物(CFRP)试件四点循环弯曲测试验证,框架实现应变场重构的R²值大于0.9,并同步生成实时不确定性场。核心贡献在于BNN能从含噪实验数据中鲁棒重建含裂纹诱导应变奇异性的全场应变,同时显式输出两类互补不确定性场。联合呈现时,可局部诊断低置信区域由数据固有噪声还是模型局限引起,从而支持可靠决策。结果表明,该框架推动了可信数字孪生部署与风险感知结构诊断的发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Reliable real-time analysis of sensor data is essential for structural health monitoring (SHM) of high-value assets, yet a major challenge is to obtain spatially resolved full-field aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for trustworthy decision-making. We present an integrated SHM framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), a Bayesian neural network (BNN), and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) inference, mapping sparse strain gauge measurements onto leading PCA modes to reconstruct full-field strain distributions with uncertainty quantification. The framework was validated through cyclic four-point bending tests on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) specimens with varying crack lengths, achieving accurate strain field reconstruction (R squared value > 0.9) while simultaneously producing real-time uncertainty fields. A key contribution is that the BNN yields robust full-field strain reconstructions from noisy experimental data with crack-induced strain singularities, while also providing explicit representations of two complementary uncertainty fields. Considered jointly in full-field form, the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty fields make it possible to diagnose at a local level, whether low-confidence regions are driven by data-inherent issues or by model-related limitations, thereby supporting reliable decision-making. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the proposed framework advances SHM toward trustworthy digital twin deployment and risk-aware structural diagnostics.
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