arXiv:2512.03309cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 1

用神经网络在线修正气候模型偏差,提升长期预测准确性。

Retrofitting Earth System Models with Cadence-Limited Neural Operator Updates

  • 设计新型神经算子,实时学习并修正气候模型状态偏差。
  • 在多变量、多层垂直结构上实现稳定且一致的误差降低。
  • 适合希望改造传统气候模型的科研与气象机构使用。

粗分辨率、不完善的参数化方案以及不确定的初始状态和强迫条件限制了地球系统模型(ESM)的预测能力。传统数据同化虽能改善约束模拟,但在自由运行时增益有限。本文提出一种算子学习框架,将瞬时模型状态映射为偏差修正趋势,并在积分过程中在线应用。基于U-Net架构,构建了Inception U-Net(IUNet)与多尺度网络(M&M),结合多种上采样方式与感受野,以满足能源百亿亿次地球系统模型(E3SM)运行约束。模型在两年的E3SM模拟数据上训练,该数据被引导至ERA5再分析资料。结果表明,算子可泛化至不同高度层与季节。离线测试中,两种架构均优于标准U-Net基线,说明性能提升源于函数丰富性而非参数量。在线混合模拟中,M&M在多变量与垂直层级上表现最稳定。机器学习增强配置在多年模拟中保持稳定且计算可行,为可扩展混合建模提供实用路径。本框架强调长期稳定性、可移植性及周期性更新,验证了表达性强的机器学习算子在学习跨尺度结构关系与改造传统气候模型中的价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Coarse resolution, imperfect parameterizations, and uncertain initial states and forcings limit Earth-system model (ESM) predictions. Traditional bias correction via data assimilation improves constrained simulations but offers limited benefit once models run freely. We introduce an operator-learning framework that maps instantaneous model states to bias-correction tendencies and applies them online during integration. Building on a U-Net backbone, we develop two operator architectures Inception U-Net (IUNet) and a multi-scale network (M\&M) that combine diverse upsampling and receptive fields to capture multiscale nonlinear features under Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) runtime constraints. Trained on two years E3SM simulations nudged toward ERA5 reanalysis, the operators generalize across height levels and seasons. Both architectures outperform standard U-Net baselines in offline tests, indicating that functional richness rather than parameter count drives performance. In online hybrid E3SM runs, M\&M delivers the most consistent bias reductions across variables and vertical levels. The ML-augmented configurations remain stable and computationally feasible in multi-year simulations, providing a practical pathway for scalable hybrid modeling. Our framework emphasizes long-term stability, portability, and cadence-limited updates, demonstrating the utility of expressive ML operators for learning structured, cross-scale relationships and retrofitting legacy ESMs.

气候建模神经算子机器学习偏差修正

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