arXiv:2512.03936cs.RO2025-12被引 1

让自动驾驶同时预测和规划,像下棋一样预判并影响其他车辆行为。

Driving is a Game: Combining Planning and Prediction with Bayesian Iterative Best Response

  • 用贝叶斯迭代最优响应框架,让自车与周围车辆反复博弈优化策略。
  • 在复杂变道场景中比顶尖规划器提升11%成功率,nuPlan基准也全面领先。
  • 能自动评估预测可信度,低信心时保守应对,高信心时果断决策。

自动驾驶在常规场景下依赖轻量级规则方法表现良好,但在密集城市交通中仍难以处理变道、汇入等复杂交互。现有运动预测模型虽精准,但仅用于淘汰不安全路径;端到端模型则缺乏双向交互建模能力。相比之下,博弈论方法虽具理论优势,却少有应用。本文提出贝叶斯迭代最优响应(BIBeR),首次将前沿预测模型融入迭代最优响应循环,通过反复优化自车与周围车辆的策略,逼近纳什均衡,实现自车既响应又影响他人行为的双向适应。同时引入贝叶斯置信度估计,根据预测可靠性动态调节更新强度:低置信时更保守,高置信时更果断。BIBeR兼容现代预测与规划模块,兼具结构化透明性与学习模型灵活性。实验表明,在高度交互的interPlan变道场景中,相较最先进规划器提升11%,并在标准nuPlan基准上全面超越现有方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Autonomous driving planning systems perform nearly perfectly in routine scenarios using lightweight, rule-based methods but still struggle in dense urban traffic, where lane changes and merges require anticipating and influencing other agents. Modern motion predictors offer highly accurate forecasts, yet their integration into planning is mostly rudimental: discarding unsafe plans. Similarly, end-to-end models offer a one-way integration that avoids the challenges of joint prediction and planning modeling under uncertainty. In contrast, game-theoretic formulations offer a principled alternative but have seen limited adoption in autonomous driving. We present Bayesian Iterative Best Response (BIBeR), a framework that unifies motion prediction and game-theoretic planning into a single interaction-aware process. BIBeR is the first to integrate a state-of-the-art predictor into an Iterative Best Response (IBR) loop, repeatedly refining the strategies of the ego vehicle and surrounding agents. This repeated best-response process approximates a Nash equilibrium, enabling bidirectional adaptation where the ego both reacts to and shapes the behavior of others. In addition, our proposed Bayesian confidence estimation quantifies prediction reliability and modulates update strength, more conservative under low confidence and more decisive under high confidence. BIBeR is compatible with modern predictors and planners, combining the transparency of structured planning with the flexibility of learned models. Experiments show that BIBeR achieves an 11% improvement over state-of-the-art planners on highly interactive interPlan lane-change scenarios, while also outperforming existing approaches on standard nuPlan benchmarks.

自动驾驶博弈论交互规划预测融合

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