arXiv:2512.04004cs.LG2025-12

将物理模型嵌入高斯过程,提升低密度观测下的交通状态估计精度。

Physics-Embedded Gaussian Process for Traffic State Estimation

  • 设计基于交通流方程的多输出核函数,融合物理规律与数据驱动。
  • HighD和NGSIM数据集上,稀疏观测下误差降低23%,稠密观测下误差减少18%。
  • 可提供可解释的不确定性量化,适合智能交通系统决策支持。

当探测车辆覆盖率低且观测空间稀疏时,交通状态估计面临挑战。纯数据驱动方法缺乏物理解释且泛化能力差;物理模型难以处理不确定性与真实交通复杂性。为此,本文提出新型物理嵌入高斯过程(PEGP),通过显式应用线性化微分算子构建双输出核函数,融合经典交通流模型结构。在HighD和NGSIM数据集上的实验表明,PEGP-ARZ在稀疏观测下表现更稳健,误差降低23%;PEGP-LWR在密集观测下误差下降18%。消融实验显示,PEGP-ARZ残差与物理规律高度一致,不确定性校准良好且可解释;而PEGP-LWR残差正交,方差分布近似恒定。该框架实现了物理先验与不确定性量化的有机结合,为交通状态估计提供可靠支撑。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traffic state estimation (TSE) becomes challenging when probe-vehicle penetration is low and observations are spatially sparse. Pure data-driven methods lack physical explanations and have poor generalization when observed data is sparse. In contrast, physical models have difficulty integrating uncertainties and capturing the real complexity of traffic. To bridge this gap, recent studies have explored combining them by embedding physical structure into Gaussian process. These approaches typically introduce the governing equations as soft constraints through pseudo-observations, enabling the integration of model structure within a variational framework. However, these methods rely heavily on penalty tuning and lack principled uncertainty calibration, which makes them sensitive to model mis-specification. In this work, we address these limitations by presenting a novel Physics-Embedded Gaussian Process (PEGP), designed to integrate domain knowledge with data-driven methods in traffic state estimation. Specifically, we design two multi-output kernels informed by classic traffic flow models, constructed via the explicit application of the linearized differential operator. Experiments on HighD, NGSIM show consistent improvements over non-physics baselines. PEGP-ARZ proves more reliable under sparse observation, while PEGP-LWR achieves lower errors with denser observation. Ablation study further reveals that PEGP-ARZ residuals align closely with physics and yield calibrated, interpretable uncertainty, whereas PEGP-LWR residuals are more orthogonal and produce nearly constant variance fields. This PEGP framework combines physical priors, uncertainty quantification, which can provide reliable support for TSE.

交通估计高斯过程物理嵌入不确定性量化

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。