arXiv:2512.04480cs.AIcs.CE2025-12中稿 · AAAI

提出可解释的决策审计AI,帮助人类在不确定中做出更优选择

Prescriptive Artificial Intelligence: A Formal Paradigm for Auditing Human Decisions Under Uncertainty

  • 基于四条通用公理构建决策审计框架,强调规范性指导而非简单模仿
  • 证明模仿学习无法纠正系统偏差,性能受限于结构性偏差项ε_bias
  • 在足球、医疗等场景验证可行,适合需要可解释与责任追溯的高风险领域

我们将规范性人工智能(Prescriptive AI)正式化为一种独立范式,用于高风险、随机环境中人机协同决策。与追求预测准确性的系统不同,规范性系统在不确定性下审计人类决策,提供规范性建议同时保留人类自主权与责任。我们提出四个跨领域公理并证明基本分离结果。核心是模仿不完全定理:在缺乏外部规范信号时,从历史决策中进行监督学习无法纠正系统性偏差;在标准正则条件下,诱导的预测器几乎必然收敛至有偏行动,而非规范最优解。决策模仿性能受结构偏差项ε_bias限制,而非统计速率O(1/sqrt(n)),该结论扩展至马尔可夫日志与有限样本集中界。通过三个独立实现验证可行性:一个可解释模糊系统用于精英足球决策审计,揭示结果与现状偏见掩盖的决策延迟与风险状态;历史验证的规则型临床咨询系统MYCIN;以及在全国范围内强制实施、在前瞻性多中心队列中验证的临床协议NEWS2。该框架确立了规范性AI作为安全关键领域中可实现的通用决策支持系统,对可解释性、可质疑性与规范一致性至关重要。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We formalize Prescriptive Artificial Intelligence as a distinct paradigm for human-AI decision collaboration in high-stakes, stochastic environments involving single-agent individual decision-making. Unlike predictive systems optimized for outcome accuracy, prescriptive systems audit human decisions under uncertainty, providing normative guidance while preserving human agency and accountability. We introduce four domain-independent axioms characterizing prescriptive systems and prove fundamental separation results. Central is the Imitation Incompleteness theorem: supervised learning from historical decisions cannot correct systematic biases in the absence of external normative signals. Under standard regularity conditions, the induced predictor converges almost surely to the biased action rather than the normatively optimal one. Performance in decision imitation is therefore bounded by a structural bias term (epsilon_bias) rather than the statistical rate O(1/sqrt(n)), a result extended to Markovian logs and finite-sample concentration bounds. We demonstrate realizability through three independent instantiations spanning five decades: an interpretable fuzzy system for elite soccer auditing, revealing decision latency and risk states obscured by outcome and status quo biases; MYCIN, the historically validated rule-based clinical consultation system; and NEWS2, a nationally mandated clinical protocol validated on a prospective multi-center cohort. The framework establishes Prescriptive AI as a general, realizable class of decision-support systems for safety-critical domains where interpretability, contestability, and normative alignment are essential.

AI审计决策支持可解释性规范性AI

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