将线性结构嵌入循环网络,提升电力价格预测精度与可解释性。
Recurrent Neural Networks with Linear Structures for Electricity Price Forecasting
- 融合专家模型与卡尔曼滤波的线性结构,增强非线性循环网络表现。
- 在欧洲市场2018–2025年小时级数据上,RMSE比最优基准低11%。
- 兼具可解释性与概率预测能力,适合能源系统决策者使用。
我们提出一种专为日前电力价格预测设计的新型循环神经网络架构,旨在提升能源系统的短期决策与运营管理水平。该联合预测模型将线性结构(如专家模型和卡尔曼滤波)嵌入循环网络中,实现高效计算与更强的可解释性。该设计结合了线性与非线性模型的优势,能够捕捉电力市场中的各类典型价格特征,包括日历效应、自回归特性,以及负荷、可再生能源、燃料和碳市场的影响。基于2018至2025年欧洲最大电力市场的小时级数据,我们进行了全面的实证研究,对比了本模型与现有先进方法(特别是高维线性与神经网络模型)。在均方根误差(RMSE)方面,所提模型比最佳基准提升约11%。我们评估了可解释组件的贡献,并分析了线性与非线性结构结合的影响。进一步通过超参数稳定性与关键特征经济意义检验模型时序鲁棒性。此外,我们引入概率扩展以量化预测不确定性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We present a novel recurrent neural network architecture specifically designed for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, aimed at improving short-term decision-making and operational management in energy systems. Our combined forecasting model embeds linear structures, such as expert models and Kalman filters, into recurrent networks, enabling efficient computation and enhanced interpretability. The design leverages the strengths of both linear and non-linear model structures, allowing it to capture all relevant stylized price characteristics in power markets, including calendar and autoregressive effects, as well as influences from load, renewable energy, and related fuel and carbon markets. For empirical testing, we use hourly data from the largest European electricity market spanning 2018 to 2025 in a comprehensive forecasting study, comparing our model against state-of-the-art approaches, particularly high-dimensional linear and neural network models. In terms of RMSE, the proposed model achieves approximately 11% higher accuracy than the best-performing benchmark. We evaluate the contributions of the interpretable model components and conclude on the impact of combining linear and non-linear structures. We further evaluate the temporal robustness of the model by examining the stability of hyperparameters and the economic significance of key features. Additionally, we introduce a probabilistic extension to quantify forecast uncertainty.
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