arXiv:2512.04871cs.AIcs.CL2025-12

用语义抽象引导大模型,提升时间序列预测精度与泛化能力

STELLA: Guiding Large Language Models for Time Series Forecasting with Semantic Abstractions

  • 将时序数据分解为趋势、季节性和残差,生成动态语义锚点
  • 在8个基准数据集上实现长短期预测最优,零样本和少样本表现突出
  • 适合需要高泛化能力的时序预测场景,尤其适用于小样本任务

大型语言模型(LLM)在时间序列预测中的应用常因无法有效增强原始序列信息而受限,导致其推理能力未被充分挖掘。现有提示策略依赖静态相关性,缺乏对动态行为的生成式理解,且缺少全局与实例级上下文。为此,我们提出 STELLA(语义-时间对齐与语言抽象),通过系统化挖掘并注入结构化的补充信息。STELLA采用动态语义抽象机制,将输入序列解耦为趋势、季节性和残差成分,并将其内在行为特征转化为层次化语义锚点:用于全局上下文的语料级语义先验(CSP)和用于实例级模式的细粒度行为提示(FBP)。以这些锚点作为前缀提示,引导LLM建模内在动态。在8个基准数据集上的实验表明,STELLA在长短期预测中均优于当前最优方法,在零样本与少样本设置下展现出更优的泛化能力。消融实验进一步验证了动态生成语义锚点的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent adaptations of Large Language Models (LLMs) for time series forecasting often fail to effectively enhance information for raw series, leaving LLM reasoning capabilities underutilized. Existing prompting strategies rely on static correlations rather than generative interpretations of dynamic behavior, lacking critical global and instance-specific context. To address this, we propose STELLA (Semantic-Temporal Alignment with Language Abstractions), a framework that systematically mines and injects structured supplementary and complementary information. STELLA employs a dynamic semantic abstraction mechanism that decouples input series into trend, seasonality, and residual components. It then translates intrinsic behavioral features of these components into Hierarchical Semantic Anchors: a Corpus-level Semantic Prior (CSP) for global context and a Fine-grained Behavioral Prompt (FBP) for instance-level patterns. Using these anchors as prefix-prompts, STELLA guides the LLM to model intrinsic dynamics. Experiments on eight benchmark datasets demonstrate that STELLA outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long- and short-term forecasting, showing superior generalization in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of our dynamically generated semantic anchors.

时间序列大模型语义抽象预测

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