新方法同时量化模型不确定性和数据不确定性,提升决策可靠性。
Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications
- 用可信集和证据区间建模不确定性,避免过拟合。
- 在多个数据集上实现顶尖的分布外检测能力,且预测区间校准良好。
- 小规模集成即可稳定估计不确定性,适合实际部署。
不确定性量化(UQ)是人工智能领域中的关键挑战,深刻影响决策、风险评估与模型可靠性。本文提出两种新方法:可信集深度证据分类(CDEC)和区间深度证据分类(IDEC),用于解决分类任务中的不确定性问题。CDEC利用可信集(闭凸概率集),IDEC使用证据预测分布的区间,从而避免对训练数据的过拟合,并系统评估认知不确定性(可减少)和随机不确定性(不可减少)。当不确定性超过阈值时,二者可拒绝分类并标记超出的认知或随机不确定性;在可接受范围内,则提供具有稳健概率保证的标签集合。两者均采用标准反向传播与基于证据理论的损失函数进行训练,克服了先前方法的不足,扩展了证据深度学习的研究。在MNIST、CIFAR-10、CIFAR-100及其自然分布外扰动(如F-MNIST/K-MNIST、SVHN/Intel、TinyImageNet)上的大量实验表明,CDEC和IDEC在预测准确性上表现竞争力,在认知和总不确定性下的分布外检测达到当前最优水平,且预测区间在分布偏移下能可靠扩展,校准良好。消融实验进一步显示,仅需小规模集成,CDEC即可获得稳定的不确定性估计。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a pivotal challenge in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), profoundly impacting decision-making, risk assessment and model reliability. In this paper, we introduce Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications (CDEC and IDEC, respectively) as novel approaches to address UQ in classification tasks. CDEC and IDEC leverage a credal set (closed and convex set of probabilities) and an interval of evidential predictive distributions, respectively, allowing us to avoid overfitting to the training data and to systematically assess both epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible) uncertainties. When those surpass acceptable thresholds, CDEC and IDEC have the capability to abstain from classification and flag an excess of epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty, as relevant. Conversely, within acceptable uncertainty bounds, CDEC and IDEC provide a collection of labels with robust probabilistic guarantees. CDEC and IDEC are trained using standard backpropagation and a loss function that draws from the theory of evidence. They overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts, and extend the current evidential deep learning literature. Through extensive experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, together with their natural OoD shifts (F-MNIST/K-MNIST, SVHN/Intel, TinyImageNet), we show that CDEC and IDEC achieve competitive predictive accuracy, state-of-the-art OoD detection under epistemic and total uncertainty, and tight, well-calibrated prediction regions that expand reliably under distribution shift. An ablation over ensemble size further demonstrates that CDEC attains stable uncertainty estimates with only a small ensemble.
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