用脉冲神经网络预测高频金融价格突变,提升交易回报。
Predicting Price Movements in High-Frequency Financial Data with Spiking Neural Networks
- 将高频数据转为脉冲信号,设计三类脉冲网络模型。
- 基于惩罚脉冲准确率优化后,模型累计收益达76.8%。
- 适合研究高频交易与事件驱动建模的学者和从业者。
现代高频交易环境以突发价格波动为特征,带来风险与机会,但传统金融模型难以捕捉精细的时间结构。脉冲神经网络(SNNs)因其天然处理离散事件和毫秒级时间精度的能力,成为应对挑战的理想框架。本文将高频股票数据转化为脉冲序列,评估三种架构:一种基于无监督STDP训练的成熟SNN、一种具有显式抑制竞争的新SNN,以及一种有监督反向传播网络。通过贝叶斯优化(BO)进行超参数调优,采用新型目标函数——惩罚脉冲准确率(PSA),确保预测的价格突变频率与实际事件频率一致。模拟交易结果显示,使用PSA优化的模型持续优于基于脉冲准确率(SA)调优的版本及基线模型。其中,改进型SNN在回测中实现最高累计收益76.8%,显著高于有监督模型的42.54%。结果验证了在任务特定目标下稳健调优的脉冲网络在高频价格突变预测中的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modern high-frequency trading (HFT) environments are characterized by sudden price spikes that present both risk and opportunity, but conventional financial models often fail to capture the required fine temporal structure. Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer a biologically inspired framework well-suited to these challenges due to their natural ability to process discrete events and preserve millisecond-scale timing. This work investigates the application of SNNs to high-frequency price-spike forecasting, enhancing performance via robust hyperparameter tuning with Bayesian Optimization (BO). This work converts high-frequency stock data into spike trains and evaluates three architectures: an established unsupervised STDP-trained SNN, a novel SNN with explicit inhibitory competition, and a supervised backpropagation network. BO was driven by a novel objective, Penalized Spike Accuracy (PSA), designed to ensure a network's predicted price spike rate aligns with the empirical rate of price events. Simulated trading demonstrated that models optimized with PSA consistently outperformed their Spike Accuracy (SA)-tuned counterparts and baselines. Specifically, the extended SNN model with PSA achieved the highest cumulative return (76.8%) in simple backtesting, significantly surpassing the supervised alternative (42.54% return). These results validate the potential of spiking networks, when robustly tuned with task-specific objectives, for effective price spike forecasting in HFT.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。