用机器学习生成企业调查合成数据,保护隐私同时保留真实统计特征。
Developing synthetic microdata through machine learning for firm-level business surveys
- 基于机器学习构建企业调查合成数据集,避免个体识别风险。
- 通过真实研究复现验证合成数据与原始数据高度相似。
- 适合政策分析、经济研究者使用,尤其关注数据隐私的场景。
美国人口普查局长期提供个人层面的公开微数据样本(PUMS),但随着计算能力提升和大数据普及,匿名数据重识别风险显著增加,可能违背对受访者的保密承诺。数据科学工具可生成合成数据,在保留关键统计特征的同时不包含任何真实个体或企业的记录。针对企业调查数据,由于缺乏匿名性且特定行业在地理上易被识别,构建公开可用的企业数据面临独特挑战。本文简要介绍用于构建年度企业调查(ABS)合成微数据样本的机器学习模型,并讨论多种质量评估指标。尽管当前ABS合成数据仍在优化中且结果保密,我们展示了两个基于2007年企业主调查(Survey of Business Owners)开发的合成样本,其结构类似ABS数据。通过复现《小企业经济学》中一篇高影响力研究,验证了合成数据与真实数据的高度逼真性,为未来ABS合成数据的应用提供了可行性支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Public-use microdata samples (PUMS) from the United States (US) Census Bureau on individuals have been available for decades. However, large increases in computing power and the greater availability of Big Data have dramatically increased the probability of re-identifying anonymized data, potentially violating the pledge of confidentiality given to survey respondents. Data science tools can be used to produce synthetic data that preserve critical moments of the empirical data but do not contain the records of any existing individual respondent or business. Developing public-use firm data from surveys presents unique challenges different from demographic data, because there is a lack of anonymity and certain industries can be easily identified in each geographic area. This paper briefly describes a machine learning model used to construct a synthetic PUMS based on the Annual Business Survey (ABS) and discusses various quality metrics. Although the ABS PUMS is currently being refined and results are confidential, we present two synthetic PUMS developed for the 2007 Survey of Business Owners, similar to the ABS business data. Econometric replication of a high impact analysis published in Small Business Economics demonstrates the verisimilitude of the synthetic data to the true data and motivates discussion of possible ABS use cases.
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