arXiv:2512.06270stat.MLcs.LG2025-12被引 1

研究如何用近似解做实时决策,提升优化精度与效率。

Contextual Strongly Convex Simulation Optimization: Optimize then Predict with Inexact Solutions

  • 先离线优化再在线预测,用平滑技术处理近似解偏差。
  • 在适当平滑和预算分配下,优化误差可逼近 Γ⁻¹ 的收敛速度。
  • 适合需要快速决策的场景,如动态资源调度、智能控制。

本文研究上下文强凸仿真优化问题,采用“先优化后预测”(OTP)框架实现实时决策。离线阶段,在一组协变量上进行仿真优化以近似最优解函数;在线阶段,通过在观测协变量处评估该近似来获取决策。核心理论挑战在于理解仿真优化算法产生的解的不精确性对最优性差距的影响,现有研究对此忽视。为此,我们构建了一个统一分析框架,显式考虑解的偏差与方差。以Polyak-Ruppert平均随机梯度下降(SGD)为例,分析了四种代表性平滑方法:k近邻、核平滑、线性回归和核岭回归下的OTP最优性差距。建立了收敛速率,推导出计算预算Γ在设计协变量数量与每协变量仿真努力之间的最优分配策略,并证明在合适的平滑技术和样本分配规则下,收敛速率可近似达到Γ⁻¹。最后,数值实验验证了理论结果,展示了所提方法的有效性与实际价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this work, we study contextual strongly convex simulation optimization and adopt an "optimize then predict" (OTP) approach for real-time decision making. In the offline stage, simulation optimization is conducted across a set of covariates to approximate the optimal-solution function; in the online stage, decisions are obtained by evaluating this approximation at the observed covariate. The central theoretical challenge is to understand how the inexactness of solutions generated by simulation-optimization algorithms affects the optimality gap, which is overlooked in existing studies. To address this, we develop a unified analysis framework that explicitly accounts for both solution bias and variance. Using Polyak-Ruppert averaging SGD as an illustrative simulation-optimization algorithm, we analyze the optimality gap of OTP under four representative smoothing techniques: $k$ nearest neighbor, kernel smoothing, linear regression, and kernel ridge regression. We establish convergence rates, derive the optimal allocation of the computational budget $Γ$ between the number of design covariates and the per-covariate simulation effort, and demonstrate the convergence rate can approximately achieve $Γ^{-1}$ under appropriate smoothing technique and sample-allocation rule. Finally, through a numerical study, we validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness and practical value of the proposed approach.

优化算法仿真优化机器学习决策收敛分析

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