arXiv:2512.06357cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 19

用PID控制思想提升神经网络时间序列预测精度,不增加模型复杂度。

Proportional integral derivative booster for neural networks-based time-series prediction: Case of water demand prediction

  • 借鉴PID控制机制动态修正每步预测值
  • 水需求与能源消耗预测误差均显著降低
  • 适合追求高精度且怕复杂模型的工程应用

多步时间序列预测在多个工业领域中对决策支持至关重要。近年来,基于神经网络的人工智能方法被广泛用于此类任务,但其结构复杂性仍是影响预测精度的关键问题。本文提出一种受比例-积分-微分(PID)控制启发的方法,用于增强神经网络在周期性时间序列多步预测中的表现,同时保持系统复杂度几乎不变。该方法在每个时间步对预测值进行修正,使其更接近真实值。以水需求预测为案例,使用文献中的两种深度神经网络模型验证了该增强方法的有效性。为进一步证明其普适性,该方法还应用于小时级能源消耗的多步预测,提升了神经网络模型的精度。对比结果显示,采用该技术后,预测精度明显提高,且系统复杂度无显著增加。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-step time-series prediction is an essential supportive step for decision-makers in several industrial areas. Artificial intelligence techniques, which use a neural network component in various forms, have recently frequently been used to accomplish this step. However, the complexity of the neural network structure still stands up as a critical problem against prediction accuracy. In this paper, a method inspired by the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control approach is investigated to enhance the performance of neural network models used for multi-step ahead prediction of periodic time-series information while maintaining a negligible impact on the complexity of the system. The PID-based method is applied to the predicted value at each time step to bring that value closer to the real value. The water demand forecasting problem is considered as a case study, where two deep neural network models from the literature are used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed boosting method. Furthermore, to prove the applicability of this PID-based booster to other types of periodic time-series prediction problems, it is applied to enhance the accuracy of a neural network model used for multi-step forecasting of hourly energy consumption. The comparison between the results of the original prediction models and the results after using the proposed technique demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method in terms of prediction accuracy and system complexity.

时间序列预测神经网络PID控制水需求

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。