arXiv:2512.06598cs.CV2025-12被引 2

用遥感数据和Transformer模型,提前14天预测湖中蓝藻爆发强度。

From Remote Sensing to Multiple Time Horizons Forecasts: Transformers Model for CyanoHAB Intensity in Lake Champlain

  • 结合Transformer与BiLSTM,从稀疏遥感数据中捕捉蓝藻演化规律。
  • 14天预报F1达78.9%,3天内准确率超85%,效果稳定可靠。
  • 适合环境监测、水利管理和公共健康预警等场景使用。

蓝藻有害藻华(CyanoHABs)对全球水生态系统和公共健康构成重大威胁。美国佛蒙特州的尚普兰湖尤其易发此类事件,其北部区域如密西索加湾、圣阿尔班斯湾及东北湾因营养富集和气候波动频发。遥感技术为缺乏现场观测的区域提供连续监测方案。本研究提出仅依赖遥感数据的预测框架,融合Transformer与BiLSTM模型,实现最多14天的蓝藻强度预报。系统采用来自藻类评估网络(Cyanobacterial Assessment Network)的蓝藻指数数据及来自中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)的温度数据,以捕捉卫星时序中的长程依赖与动态特征。原始数据存在超过30%的蓝藻指数缺失和90%的温度数据缺失。通过两阶段预处理:像素级前向填充与加权时间插补,再经平滑处理以减少蓝藻事件的不连续性。蓝藻指数通过等频分箱转换为特征,温度数据提取统计量。所提模型在多时间尺度上表现优异:1、2、3天预报的F1得分分别为89.5%、86.4%、85.5%,14天预报仍保持78.9% F1与82.6% AUC。结果表明该模型能有效从稀疏卫星数据中捕捉复杂时空动态,为蓝藻管理提供可靠早期预警。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (CyanoHABs) pose significant threats to aquatic ecosystems and public health globally. Lake Champlain is particularly vulnerable to recurring CyanoHAB events, especially in its northern segment: Missisquoi Bay, St. Albans Bay, and Northeast Arm, due to nutrient enrichment and climatic variability. Remote sensing provides a scalable solution for monitoring and forecasting these events, offering continuous coverage where in situ observations are sparse or unavailable. In this study, we present a remote sensing only forecasting framework that combines Transformers and BiLSTM to predict CyanoHAB intensities up to 14 days in advance. The system utilizes Cyanobacterial Index data from the Cyanobacterial Assessment Network and temperature data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites to capture long range dependencies and sequential dynamics in satellite time series. The dataset is very sparse, missing more than 30% of the Cyanobacterial Index data and 90% of the temperature data. A two stage preprocessing pipeline addressed data gaps by applying forward fill and weighted temporal imputation at the pixel level, followed by smoothing to reduce the discontinuities of CyanoHAB events. The raw dataset is transformed into meaningful features through equal frequency binning for the Cyanobacterial Index values and extracted temperature statistics. Transformer BiLSTM model demonstrates strong forecasting performance across multiple horizons, achieving F1 scores of 89.5%, 86.4%, and 85.5% at one, two, and three-day forecasts, respectively, and maintaining an F1 score of 78.9% with an AUC of 82.6% at the 14-day horizon. These results confirm the model's ability to capture complex spatiotemporal dynamics from sparse satellite data and to provide reliable early warning for CyanoHABs management.

蓝藻预警遥感预测Transformer时间序列

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