arXiv:2512.06648cs.LGcs.AI2025-12

用卷积神经网络提前识别上市公司财务造假,还能解释原因。

Financial Fraud Identification and Interpretability Study for Listed Companies Based on Convolutional Neural Network

  • 把公司年度数据转成图像,让CNN捕捉跨年和跨公司模式。
  • 准确率高于传统模型,且能提前预警,阈值调优很重要。
  • 可解释性强,发现偿债、治理结构是关键风险指标。

自股份制公司出现以来,上市公司财务造假屡次破坏资本市场。由于手段隐蔽且审计成本高,传统统计模型虽可解释但难以处理非线性特征交互,机器学习模型虽强但常不透明。现有方法多仅基于当年数据判断当年是否造假,时效性不足。本文提出基于卷积神经网络(CNN)的中国A股上市公司财务欺诈检测框架,设计特征工程将企业-年度面板数据转化为类图像表示,使CNN能捕捉横截面与时间序列模式,实现提前预警。实验表明,该CNN在准确率、鲁棒性和预警能力上均优于逻辑回归和LightGBM,且分类阈值在高风险场景中至关重要。为提升可解释性,采用局部解释技术从实体、特征、时间维度分析模型。结果发现,偿债能力、比率结构、治理结构与内控是通用预测因子,环境指标仅在高污染行业显著。非造假企业特征稳定,而造假企业特征呈现短期集中异化。以2022年广农控股为例,现金流、社会责任、治理结构与每股指标是主要驱动因素,与该公司已知违规行为一致。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Since the emergence of joint-stock companies, financial fraud by listed firms has repeatedly undermined capital markets. Fraud is difficult to detect because of covert tactics and the high labor and time costs of audits. Traditional statistical models are interpretable but struggle with nonlinear feature interactions, while machine learning models are powerful but often opaque. In addition, most existing methods judge fraud only for the current year based on current year data, limiting timeliness. This paper proposes a financial fraud detection framework for Chinese A-share listed companies based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We design a feature engineering scheme that transforms firm-year panel data into image like representations, enabling the CNN to capture cross-sectional and temporal patterns and to predict fraud in advance. Experiments show that the CNN outperforms logistic regression and LightGBM in accuracy, robustness, and early-warning performance, and that proper tuning of the classification threshold is crucial in high-risk settings. To address interpretability, we analyze the model along the dimensions of entity, feature, and time using local explanation techniques. We find that solvency, ratio structure, governance structure, and internal control are general predictors of fraud, while environmental indicators matter mainly in high-pollution industries. Non-fraud firms share stable feature patterns, whereas fraud firms exhibit heterogeneous patterns concentrated in short time windows. A case study of Guanong Shares in 2022 shows that cash flow analysis, social responsibility, governance structure, and per-share indicators are the main drivers of the model's fraud prediction, consistent with the company's documented misconduct.

财务造假CNN可解释性早期预警

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