arXiv:2512.06926cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 1

研究BiLSTM在不同序列长度和噪声下的表现,发现两者叠加会严重降低模型稳定性。

Evaluating the Sensitivity of BiLSTM Forecasting Models to Sequence Length and Input Noise

  • 通过控制实验分析序列长度与输入噪声对BiLSTM的影响
  • 长序列易过拟合,噪声会普遍降低预测精度,二者共现时影响最显著
  • 适用于关注时间序列模型鲁棒性的研究人员和实际部署者

深度学习模型已成为环境监测和物联网等关键领域时间序列预测的核心工具。其中,双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)架构在捕捉复杂时间依赖性方面尤为有效。然而,这类模型的鲁棒性和泛化能力高度依赖于输入数据特征,这一问题在现有文献中仍缺乏深入探讨。本研究系统地实证分析了两个关键数据因素:输入序列长度和加性噪声。为此,构建了一个模块化、可复现的预测流水线,包含标准化预处理、序列生成、模型训练、验证与评估。在三个具有不同采样频率的真实数据集上开展受控实验,评估不同输入条件下BiLSTM的表现。结果得出三个关键发现:(1) 更长的输入序列显著增加过拟合和数据泄露风险,尤其在数据受限环境下;(2) 加性噪声在所有采样频率下均持续降低预测准确性;(3) 两种因素同时存在时,模型稳定性下降最为严重。尽管高采样频率数据集表现出更强鲁棒性,但在双重挑战下仍显脆弱。这些发现揭示了当前基于深度学习的预测流水线的重要局限,强调了数据感知设计策略的必要性。本工作深化了对深度学习模型在动态时间序列环境中行为的理解,并为构建更可靠、可泛化的预测系统提供了实践洞见。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep learning (DL) models, a specialized class of multilayer neural networks, have become central to time-series forecasting in critical domains such as environmental monitoring and the Internet of Things (IoT). Among these, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) architectures are particularly effective in capturing complex temporal dependencies. However, the robustness and generalization of such models are highly sensitive to input data characteristics - an aspect that remains underexplored in existing literature. This study presents a systematic empirical analysis of two key data-centric factors: input sequence length and additive noise. To support this investigation, a modular and reproducible forecasting pipeline is developed, incorporating standardized preprocessing, sequence generation, model training, validation, and evaluation. Controlled experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets with varying sampling frequencies to assess BiLSTM performance under different input conditions. The results yield three key findings: (1) longer input sequences significantly increase the risk of overfitting and data leakage, particularly in data-constrained environments; (2) additive noise consistently degrades predictive accuracy across sampling frequencies; and (3) the simultaneous presence of both factors results in the most substantial decline in model stability. While datasets with higher observation frequencies exhibit greater robustness, they remain vulnerable when both input challenges are present. These findings highlight important limitations in current DL-based forecasting pipelines and underscore the need for data-aware design strategies. This work contributes to a deeper understanding of DL model behavior in dynamic time-series environments and provides practical insights for developing more reliable and generalizable forecasting systems.

时间序列BiLSTM模型鲁棒性数据噪声

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