arXiv:2512.06945stat.MLcs.LG2025-12AAAI被引 4

用对称聚合提升多模型预测置信度,更准更快

Symmetric Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Efficient Uncertainty Sets

  • 将多个模型的非符合度分数转为e值,用对称函数合并
  • 在多个数据集上显著提升预测集效率,优于现有方法
  • 适合需要高可靠置信度的工业级模型集成场景

在回归或分类任务中,同时使用多个训练好的预测模型越来越普遍。如何高效聚合这些模型的预测不确定性以生成可靠且高效的不确定量化,仍是重要但未充分探索的问题,尤其在共形预测(CP)框架下。尽管CP可为每个模型生成独立预测集,但如何融合它们形成更具信息量的统一预测集仍具挑战。为此,我们提出SACP(对称聚合共形预测),一种新方法,通过将多个预测器的非符合度分数转换为e值,并利用任意对称聚合函数进行组合。该灵活设计构建了一个稳健、数据驱动的框架,用于选择能生成更紧凑预测集的聚合策略。我们还提供了理论分析,支持SACP的有效性与性能。在多种数据集上的大量实验表明,SACP始终提升效率,常优于当前最先进的模型聚合基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Access to multiple predictive models trained for the same task, whether in regression or classification, is increasingly common in many applications. Aggregating their predictive uncertainties to produce reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification is therefore a critical but still underexplored challenge, especially within the framework of conformal prediction (CP). While CP methods can generate individual prediction sets from each model, combining them into a single, more informative set remains a challenging problem. To address this, we propose SACP (Symmetric Aggregated Conformal Prediction), a novel method that aggregates nonconformity scores from multiple predictors. SACP transforms these scores into e-values and combines them using any symmetric aggregation function. This flexible design enables a robust, data-driven framework for selecting aggregation strategies that yield sharper prediction sets. We also provide theoretical insights that help justify the validity and performance of the SACP approach. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets show that SACP consistently improves efficiency and often outperforms state-of-the-art model aggregation baselines.

共形预测不确定性量化模型集成

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