arXiv:2512.07081cs.AI2025-12中稿 · AMIA 2026 Informat…被引 3

用大模型多智能体系统从病历文本预测心衰30天再入院风险

ClinNoteAgents: An LLM Multi-Agent System for Predicting and Interpreting Heart Failure 30-Day Readmission from Clinical Notes

  • 构建多智能体框架,将自由文本转为结构化风险因子与临床摘要
  • 在2065名患者数据上实现≥90%关键生命体征提取准确率,再入院率预测有效
  • 仅需少量标注,适合资源有限的医疗机构快速部署

心力衰竭(HF)是美国老年人再入院的主要原因之一。尽管临床笔记包含丰富详尽的患者信息,占电子健康记录(EHR)的很大比例,却仍被低估用于再入院风险分析。传统计算模型依赖专家设计规则、医学术语库和本体论来解析笔记,而这些笔记常在时间压力下撰写,存在拼写错误、缩写和领域术语。我们提出ClinNoteAgents,一个基于大语言模型的多智能体框架,将自由文本临床笔记转化为:(1) 用于关联分析的临床和社会风险因素结构化表示;(2) 类似医生的抽象内容,用于心衰30天再入院预测。我们在3,544条来自2,065名患者的笔记上评估该系统(再入院率=35.16%),结果显示对多个生命体征的条件准确率≥90%,能有效识别关键风险因素,并在文本减少60%至90%的情况下仍保留预测信号。通过减少对结构化字段的依赖并降低人工标注与模型训练需求,ClinNoteAgents为数据受限的医疗系统提供了一种可扩展且可解释的基于笔记的心衰再入院风险建模方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of rehospitalization among older adults in the United States. Although clinical notes contain rich, detailed patient information and make up a large portion of electronic health records (EHRs), they remain underutilized for HF readmission risk analysis. Traditional computational models for HF readmission often rely on expert-crafted rules, medical thesauri, and ontologies to interpret clinical notes, which are typically written under time pressure and may contain misspellings, abbreviations, and domain-specific jargon. We present ClinNoteAgents, an LLM-based multi-agent framework that transforms free-text clinical notes into (1) structured representations of clinical and social risk factors for association analysis and (2) clinician-style abstractions for HF 30-day readmission prediction. We evaluate ClinNoteAgents on 3,544 notes from 2,065 patients (readmission rate=35.16%), demonstrating high extraction fidelity for clinical variables (conditional accuracy >= 90% for multiple vitals), key risk factor identification, and preservation of predictive signal despite 60 to 90% text reduction. By reducing reliance on structured fields and minimizing manual annotation and model training, ClinNoteAgents provides a scalable and interpretable approach to note-based HF readmission risk modeling in data-limited healthcare systems.

心衰预测大模型应用临床笔记分析

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