通过凸优化方法,从时间序列中学习带非负边权的因果图。
Non-negative DAG Learning from Time-Series Data
- 利用非负边权特性,将因果图学习转化为凸优化问题。
- 在合成数据上优于现有方法,且保证全局最优解。
- 适合关注因果推断与时间序列建模的研究者。
本文旨在从多变量时间序列中学习捕捉瞬时依赖关系的有向无环图(DAG)。观测数据遵循具有瞬时和时滞依赖的线性结构向量自回归模型(SVARM),其中瞬时结构由DAG建模以反映潜在因果关系。现有连续松弛方法通过涉及邻接矩阵幂次的光滑约束函数施加无环性,但导致难以求解的非凸优化问题。本文假设底层DAG仅含非负边权,利用此额外结构通过凸约束施加无环性,将非负DAG恢复问题转化为抽象形式的凸优化问题,并采用乘子法求解。该凸化形式确保了全局最优性。最后在合成时间序列数据上评估方法性能,结果表明其优于现有方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This work aims to learn the directed acyclic graph (DAG) that captures the instantaneous dependencies underlying a multivariate time series. The observed data follow a linear structural vector autoregressive model (SVARM) with both instantaneous and time-lagged dependencies, where the instantaneous structure is modeled by a DAG to reflect potential causal relationships. While recent continuous relaxation approaches impose acyclicity through smooth constraint functions involving powers of the adjacency matrix, they lead to non-convex optimization problems that are challenging to solve. In contrast, we assume that the underlying DAG has only non-negative edge weights, and leverage this additional structure to impose acyclicity via a convex constraint. This enables us to cast the problem of non-negative DAG recovery from multivariate time-series data as a convex optimization problem in abstract form, which we solve using the method of multipliers. Crucially, the convex formulation guarantees global optimality of the solution. Finally, we assess the performance of the proposed method on synthetic time-series data, where it outperforms existing alternatives.
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