arXiv:2512.07796cs.AI2025-12被引 9

用大模型自动构建跨领域因果模型,让机器理解复杂世界的因果关系。

Large Causal Models from Large Language Models

  • 从文本中提取因果陈述,通过新方法整合成统一因果图谱。
  • 在考古、生物、气候等6个领域验证,成功构建跨域因果模型。
  • 适合做知识推理、政策分析的科研与工程人员参考。

我们提出一种构建大型因果模型(LCMs)的新范式,利用当前大语言模型(LLMs)中蕴藏的巨大潜力。本文介绍正在开发的系统DEMOCRITUS(去中心化因果关系本体提取与拓扑通用切片集成系统),旨在从针对特定文本查询的LLM中提取并组织跨领域因果模型,实现建模、组织与可视化。与依赖实验数据的传统窄领域因果推断不同,本系统使用高质量大模型生成主题、提出因果问题,并从多领域文本中提取可能的因果陈述。核心挑战在于将孤立、碎片化、可能存在歧义或冲突的因果命题整合为连贯整体,转化为关系型因果三元组并嵌入因果模型。为此我们发展了新的范畴机器学习方法(仅简要概述)。本文重点描述DEMOCRITUS的六模块实现流程,分析其计算成本以识别扩展瓶颈。实验覆盖考古学、生物学、气候变化、经济学、医学和技术等多个领域,展示其有效性。同时讨论当前系统局限性,并展望未来扩展方向。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We introduce a new paradigm for building large causal models (LCMs) that exploits the enormous potential latent in today's large language models (LLMs). We describe our ongoing experiments with an implemented system called DEMOCRITUS (Decentralized Extraction of Manifold Ontologies of Causal Relations Integrating Topos Universal Slices) aimed at building, organizing, and visualizing LCMs that span disparate domains extracted from carefully targeted textual queries to LLMs. DEMOCRITUS is methodologically distinct from traditional narrow domain and hypothesis centered causal inference that builds causal models from experiments that produce numerical data. A high-quality LLM is used to propose topics, generate causal questions, and extract plausible causal statements from a diverse range of domains. The technical challenge is then to take these isolated, fragmented, potentially ambiguous and possibly conflicting causal claims, and weave them into a coherent whole, converting them into relational causal triples and embedding them into a LCM. Addressing this technical challenge required inventing new categorical machine learning methods, which we can only briefly summarize in this paper, as it is focused more on the systems side of building DEMOCRITUS. We describe the implementation pipeline for DEMOCRITUS comprising of six modules, examine its computational cost profile to determine where the current bottlenecks in scaling the system to larger models. We describe the results of using DEMOCRITUS over a wide range of domains, spanning archaeology, biology, climate change, economics, medicine and technology. We discuss the limitations of the current DEMOCRITUS system, and outline directions for extending its capabilities.

因果模型大模型知识图谱跨领域

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