arXiv:2512.08281cs.MAcs.LG2025-12中稿 · AIAA SciTech 2026

模型预测飞机降落时间并给出不确定性,还能理解空中交通管制的干预逻辑。

Probabilistic Multi-Agent Aircraft Landing Time Prediction

  • 基于多智能体框架,用概率分布预测多架飞机降落时间。
  • 在仁川机场数据上,准确率高于基线,且能量化预测不确定性。
  • 通过注意力机制揭示空管干预规律,提升结果可解释性。

精确可靠的飞机降落时间预测对空中交通管理中的资源调度至关重要。然而,飞行轨迹和流量的内在不确定性给预测精度与可信度带来挑战。因此,预测模型不仅应提供降落时间的点估计,还需包含相应的不确定性。此外,飞机轨迹常受邻近飞机影响,空管通过雷达引导等干预手段进行调整。因此,降落时间预测需考虑空域中多智能体的交互。本文提出一种概率化多智能体飞机降落时间预测框架,将多架飞机的降落时间输出为概率分布。我们在韩国仁川国际机场终端空域采集的空中交通监视数据集上评估该框架。结果表明,所提模型在预测精度上优于基线方法,并能有效量化预测结果的不确定性。此外,模型通过注意力分数揭示了空中交通管制的潜在规律,增强了预测结果的可解释性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate and reliable aircraft landing time prediction is essential for effective resource allocation in air traffic management. However, the inherent uncertainty of aircraft trajectories and traffic flows poses significant challenges to both prediction accuracy and trustworthiness. Therefore, prediction models should not only provide point estimates of aircraft landing times but also the uncertainties associated with these predictions. Furthermore, aircraft trajectories are frequently influenced by the presence of nearby aircraft through air traffic control interventions such as radar vectoring. Consequently, landing time prediction models must account for multi-agent interactions in the airspace. In this work, we propose a probabilistic multi-agent aircraft landing time prediction framework that provides the landing times of multiple aircraft as distributions. We evaluate the proposed framework using an air traffic surveillance dataset collected from the terminal airspace of the Incheon International Airport in South Korea. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy than the baselines and quantifies the associated uncertainties of its outcomes. In addition, the model uncovered underlying patterns in air traffic control through its attention scores, thereby enhancing explainability.

多智能体概率预测空管可解释性

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