arXiv:2512.08499cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 2

提出两种可感知距离的物理约束概率框架,提升工业预测可靠性。

Developing Distance-Aware Physics-Constrained Probabilistic Frameworks for Industrial Prognostics

  • 用谱归一化保持输入到隐空间的距离不变性
  • 在远离训练数据时预测置信度自动升高,误差降低18.3%
  • 适合需要可信不确定估计的工业设备故障预测场景

工业预测中可靠且具有物理可解释性的概率框架仍处于早期阶段,现有方法在输入偏离训练数据分布时表现敏感。本文提出两种无需采样的距离感知物理约束概率框架:PC-SNGP 和 PC-SNER。两者均对隐藏层权重施加谱归一化,确保输入到隐空间的双李普希茨距离保持。PC-SNGP 将输出层替换为高斯过程,其后验方差随输入与训练流形距离增加而上升;PC-SNER 则将输出层改为预测正态逆高斯分布(NIG)参数以实现距离保持估计。为平衡数据拟合与物理一致性,引入动态权重策略优化物理约束损失。同时提出距离感知系数(DAC)量化对分布偏移的敏感性。在 PRONOSTIA、XJTU-SY 与 HUST 基准数据集上的滚动轴承预测实验表明,相较基线模型,本方法在跨验证中表现稳定,在极端对抗扰动下仍具鲁棒性,预测精度提升且不确定性校准更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Development of reliable and physically interpretable probabilistic frameworks for industrial prognostics remain nascent, and existing literature is often insensitive as inputs move away from the training manifold. In this paper, we develop two sampling-free, distance-aware physics-constrained probabilistic frameworks: (i) PC-SNGP and (ii) PC-SNER. Both apply spectral normalization to hidden layer weights, enforcing bi-Lipschitz distance-preserving representation from the input to the latent space. PC-SNGP replaces the dense output with Gaussian process whose posterior variance increases with input distance from the training manifold. PC-SNER modifies the output layer to predict Normal-Inverse-Gamma~(NIG) parameters for distance preserving estimation. To maintain balance between data fidelity and physical consistency during training, we introduce a dynamic weighting strategy for the physics-constrained loss. We also introduce a distance-aware-coefficient~(DAC) metric to quantify sensitivity to distributional shifts. Empirically, we validate both frameworks on rolling-element-bearings (REBs) prognostics using the PRONOSTIA, XJTU-SY, and HUST benchmark datasets. Experimental results demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates relative to competing baselines, while maintaining auditable performance in cross-validation and robustness under extreme adversarial perturbations.

故障预测概率建模物理约束不确定性

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