提出最优自适应实验设计,精准选择最佳治疗方案。
Minimax and Bayes Optimal Adaptive Experimental Design for Treatment Choice
- 分两阶段分配治疗:先估标准差,再按标准差比例分配
- 所提方法在最小化后悔值上达到理论最优,与下界完全匹配
- 适用于医疗试验等需最大化福利的决策场景
我们研究一种用于治疗选择的自适应实验设计,并构建了针对后悔值的极小极大和贝叶斯最优自适应实验。考虑二元治疗情形,实验者目标是通过自适应实验选择期望结果最高的治疗以最大化整体福利。实验分为两阶段:治疗分配阶段和治疗选择阶段。在分配阶段,实验者根据已有观测动态调整治疗分配概率;完成后进入选择阶段,确定最优治疗。我们提出一种将分配阶段分为两个子阶段的方法:先估计各治疗的标准差,再按标准差比例分配治疗。该方法即著名的奈曼分配,在极小极大和贝叶斯意义下均达到最优,其后悔值上界恰好等于我们推导出的下界。通过测度变换论证得到极小极大与贝叶斯下界,并利用中心极限定理与大偏差界评估对应上界。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We consider an adaptive experiment for treatment choice and design a minimax and Bayes optimal adaptive experiment with respect to regret. Given binary treatments, the experimenter's goal is to choose the treatment with the highest expected outcome through an adaptive experiment, in order to maximize welfare. We consider adaptive experiments that consist of two phases, the treatment allocation phase and the treatment choice phase. The experiment starts with the treatment allocation phase, where the experimenter allocates treatments to experimental subjects to gather observations. During this phase, the experimenter can adaptively update the allocation probabilities using the observations obtained in the experiment. After the allocation phase, the experimenter proceeds to the treatment choice phase, where one of the treatments is selected as the best. For this adaptive experimental procedure, we propose an adaptive experiment that splits the treatment allocation phase into two stages, where we first estimate the standard deviations and then allocate each treatment proportionally to its standard deviation. We show that this experiment, often referred to as Neyman allocation, is minimax and Bayes optimal in the sense that its regret upper bounds exactly match the lower bounds that we derive. To show this optimality, we derive minimax and Bayes lower bounds for the regret using change-of-measure arguments. Then, we evaluate the corresponding upper bounds using the central limit theorem and large deviation bounds.
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