提升扩散语言模型的强化学习可靠性，解决奖励稀疏与概率估计偏差问题。

Reinforcement learning (RL) is pivotal for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of diffusion large language models (dLLMs). However, existing dLLM policy optimization methods suffer from two critical reliability bottlenecks: (1) reward sparsity, arising from coarse or unverifiable signals that impede accurate advantage calculation; and (2) their probability estimates do not account for the gap to the unbiased expectation over all decoding orders, which are intractable to compute. To mitigate these issues, we propose d-TreeRPO, a reliable RL framework for dLLMs that leverages tree-structured rollouts and bottom-up advantage computation based on verifiable outcome rewards to provide fine-grained and verifiable step-wise reward signals. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical proof demonstrating that increasing prediction confidence effectively minimizes the gap between unbiased expected prediction probabilities and its single-step forward pass estimate. Guided by this analysis, we introduce a time-scheduled self-distillation loss during training that enhances prediction confidence in later training stages, thereby enabling more accurate probability estimation and better performance. Experiments demonstrate that d-TreeRPO outperforms existing baselines and achieves significant improvements across multiple reasoning benchmarks. Specifically, it achieves +86.2% on Sudoku, +51.6% on Countdown, +4.5% on GSM8K, and +5.3% on Math500 compared to the base model.