用机器学习预测加州山火完全受控所需天数,提升资源调配精度。
Predicting the Containment Time of California Wildfires Using Machine Learning
- 将山火持续时间建模为回归任务,实现连续数值预测。
- XGBoost模型表现最优,比随机森林略胜一筹,准确率更高。
- 适合防火部门用于精准分配救援资源,尤其在静态特征丰富时。
加州山火季节逐年恶化,严重威胁生命与财产安全,亟需精准预测以辅助应急资源配置。本文构建机器学习模型,预测加州山火完全受控所需的天数,填补了以往研究多聚焦于火灾风险或扩散范围、且多采用分类预测的空白。研究整合加州林业与消防局(CAL FIRE)FRAP计划的三个公开数据集,对比了随机森林、XGBoost及长短期记忆网络(LSTM)三种模型。结果显示,XGBoost在静态特征上表现更优,略胜于随机森林;而LSTM因缺乏时间序列特征,性能较差。研究表明,根据特征可用性选择合适模型,可有效提升对山火持续时间的预测精度,帮助管理部门优化资源部署。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
California's wildfire season keeps getting worse over the years, overwhelming the emergency response teams. These fires cause massive destruction to both property and human life. Because of these reasons, there's a growing need for accurate and practical predictions that can help assist with resources allocation for the Wildfire managers or the response teams. In this research, we built machine learning models to predict the number of days it will require to fully contain a wildfire in California. Here, we addressed an important gap in the current literature. Most prior research has concentrated on wildfire risk or how fires spread, and the few that examine the duration typically predict it in broader categories rather than a continuous measure. This research treats the wildfire duration prediction as a regression task, which allows for more detailed and precise forecasts rather than just the broader categorical predictions used in prior work. We built the models by combining three publicly available datasets from California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). This study compared the performance of baseline ensemble regressor, Random Forest and XGBoost, with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The results show that the XGBoost model slightly outperforms the Random Forest model, likely due to its superior handling of static features in the dataset. The LSTM model, on the other hand, performed worse than the ensemble models because the dataset lacked temporal features. Overall, this study shows that, depending on the feature availability, Wildfire managers or Fire management authorities can select the most appropriate model to accurately predict wildfire containment duration and allocate resources effectively.
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