arXiv:2512.10105cs.AI2025-12

用图神经网络分析阴谋论话语,发现其混在日常聊天中而非孤立传播。

Belief Is All You Need: Modeling Narrative Archetypes in Conspiratorial Discourse

  • 构建信念图谱,分离意识形态与表达风格,提升分类精度。
  • 从55万条消息中识别出7类叙事原型,包含法律、医疗、金融等日常话题。
  • 模型聚类效果优于基线,适合研究政治传播与内容审核策略。

阴谋论话语日益嵌入数字通信生态,但其结构与传播机制仍难解析。本研究分析新加坡Telegram群组中的阴谋论内容,发现此类信息常融入日常对话,并非仅限于封闭回音室。提出两阶段计算框架:首先微调RoBERTa-large模型,对2000条专家标注消息进行分类,取得0.866的F1分数;其次构建有符号信念图,节点为消息,边符号反映信念一致性,权重由文本相似度决定。引入带符号解耦损失的签名信念图神经网络(SiBeGNN),学习可分离意识形态与表达风格的嵌入表示。基于嵌入进行层次聚类,在553,648条消息中识别出七类叙事原型:法律议题、医疗关切、媒体讨论、金融、权威矛盾、群组管理与一般闲聊。SiBeGNN聚类质量显著更高(cDBI = 8.38),远优于基线方法(13.60至67.27),专家评估显示88%的一致性。结果表明,阴谋论不仅出现在怀疑或不信任的集群中,也渗透于金融、法律及日常生活话题。该发现挑战了线上极端化的常见认知,证明阴谋论嵌入于普通社交互动之中。所提框架推动了以信念为核心的语篇分析方法,适用于立场检测、政治传播研究与内容审核政策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conspiratorial discourse is increasingly embedded within digital communication ecosystems, yet its structure and spread remain difficult to study. This work analyzes conspiratorial narratives in Singapore-based Telegram groups, showing that such content is woven into everyday discussions rather than confined to isolated echo chambers. We propose a two-stage computational framework. First, we fine-tune RoBERTa-large to classify messages as conspiratorial or not, achieving an F1-score of 0.866 on 2,000 expert-labeled messages. Second, we build a signed belief graph in which nodes represent messages and edge signs reflect alignment in belief labels, weighted by textual similarity. We introduce a Signed Belief Graph Neural Network (SiBeGNN) that uses a Sign Disentanglement Loss to learn embeddings that separate ideological alignment from stylistic features. Using hierarchical clustering on these embeddings, we identify seven narrative archetypes across 553,648 messages: legal topics, medical concerns, media discussions, finance, contradictions in authority, group moderation, and general chat. SiBeGNN yields stronger clustering quality (cDBI = 8.38) than baseline methods (13.60 to 67.27), supported by 88 percent inter-rater agreement in expert evaluations. Our analysis shows that conspiratorial messages appear not only in clusters focused on skepticism or distrust, but also within routine discussions of finance, law, and everyday matters. These findings challenge common assumptions about online radicalization by demonstrating that conspiratorial discourse operates within ordinary social interaction. The proposed framework advances computational methods for belief-driven discourse analysis and offers applications for stance detection, political communication studies, and content moderation policy.

阴谋论信念图谱社交传播内容审核

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