用可解释模型帮医生选最适合的主动脉瓣手术方式,降低五年死亡率。
An Interpretable AI Tool for SAVR vs TAVR in Low to Intermediate Risk Patients with Severe Aortic Stenosis
- 通过匹配和反事实分析,为每位患者计算两种手术的预后风险。
- 在两家医院数据中,预测可使五年死亡率分别下降20.3%和13.8%。
- 决策树清晰可读,适合临床医生用于精准医疗决策参考。
对于低至中等风险的严重主动脉瓣狭窄患者,外科(SAVR)与经导管(TAVR)主动脉瓣置换术的选择在临床上差异较大,受患者异质性和机构偏好影响。现有模型虽能预测术后风险,但缺乏可解释的个体化治疗建议以优化长期结局。本文提出一种可解释的处方框架,整合预后匹配、反事实结果建模与最优策略树(OPT),推荐能使5年预期死亡率最低的治疗方案。基于哈特福德医院和圣文森特医院的数据,通过预后匹配和样本加权模拟随机化,估计两种术式下的反事实死亡率。策略模型基于这些预测划分患者亚组,并分配更低风险的治疗。若采用该框架,反事实评估显示在哈特福德医院可使5年死亡率降低20.3%,在圣文森特医院降低13.8%,展现出良好的外部泛化能力。学习到的决策边界与真实世界结果及临床观察一致。本研究是首个提供透明、数据驱动的SAVR/TAVR选择建议,能改善内部与外部队列的长期预后,且保持临床合理性,推动结构性心脏病精准医疗的发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Background. Treatment selection for low to intermediate risk patients with severe aortic stenosis between surgical (SAVR) and transcatheter (TAVR) aortic valve replacement remains variable in clinical practice, driven by patient heterogeneity and institutional preferences. While existing models predict postprocedural risk, there is a lack of interpretable, individualized treatment recommendations that directly optimize long-term outcomes. Methods. We introduce an interpretable prescriptive framework that integrates prognostic matching, counterfactual outcome modeling, and an Optimal Policy Tree (OPT) to recommend the treatment minimizing expected 5-year mortality. Using data from Hartford Hospital and St. Vincent's Hospital, we emulate randomization via prognostic matching and sample weighting and estimate counterfactual mortality under both SAVR and TAVR. The policy model, trained on these counterfactual predictions, partitions patients into clinically coherent subgroups and prescribes the treatment associated with lower estimated risk. Findings. If the OPT prescriptions are applied, counterfactual evaluation showed an estimated reduction in 5-year mortality of 20.3\% in Hartford and 13.8\% in St. Vincent's relative to real-life prescriptions, showing promising generalizability to unseen data from a different institution. The learned decision boundaries aligned with real-world outcomes and clinical observations. Interpretation. Our interpretable prescriptive framework is, to the best of our knowledge, the first to provide transparent, data-driven recommendations for TAVR versus SAVR that improve estimated long-term outcomes both in an internal and external cohort, while remaining clinically grounded and contributing toward a more systematic and evidence-based approach to precision medicine in structural heart disease.
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