arXiv:2512.11273cs.CEcs.LG2025-12

将预测与多期投资组合优化融合,提升真实交易场景下的收益风险表现。

Integrated Prediction and Multi-period Portfolio Optimization

  • 构建端到端模型,用可微优化层连接预测与资产配置决策。
  • 在真实市场数据上,风险调整后收益优于传统两阶段方法,且交易成本更低。
  • 适合关注量化投资、金融机器学习的从业者和研究者。

多期投资组合优化对实际资产管理至关重要,因其能捕捉交易成本、路径依赖风险及跨期交易结构,而单期模型无法体现。经典方法采用两阶段框架:先用机器学习预测收益,再用于后续优化求解权重。这种分离导致预测与决策目标错位,并忽略交易成本影响。为弥合此差距,近年提出端到端学习思路,将两阶段整合为单一流程。本文提出IPMO(集成预测与多期投资组合优化)模型,支持带换手率惩罚的多期均值-方差优化。预测器生成多期收益预测,参数化一个可微凸优化层,进而通过投资绩效反向驱动学习。为保证可扩展性,引入镜面下降固定点(MDFP)梯度计算方案,避免求解卡鲁什-库恩-塔克(KKT)系统,实现稳定隐式梯度与近似无尺度增长的运行时间。在真实市场数据及两种代表性时序预测模型上的实验表明,IPMO持续优于两阶段基准,在扣除交易成本后风险调整收益更高,且配置路径更连贯。结果表明,多期设置下融合机器学习预测与优化可显著提升金融表现,且计算仍具可行性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-period portfolio optimization is important for real portfolio management, as it accounts for transaction costs, path-dependent risks, and the intertemporal structure of trading decisions that single-period models cannot capture. Classical methods usually follow a two-stage framework: machine learning algorithms are employed to produce forecasts that closely fit the realized returns, and the predicted values are then used in a downstream portfolio optimization problem to determine the asset weights. This separation leads to a fundamental misalignment between predictions and decision outcomes, while also ignoring the impact of transaction costs. To bridge this gap, recent studies have proposed the idea of end-to-end learning, integrating the two stages into a single pipeline. This paper introduces IPMO (Integrated Prediction and Multi-period Portfolio Optimization), a model for multi-period mean-variance portfolio optimization with turnover penalties. The predictor generates multi-period return forecasts that parameterize a differentiable convex optimization layer, which in turn drives learning via portfolio performance. For scalability, we introduce a mirror-descent fixed-point (MDFP) differentiation scheme that avoids factorizing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) systems, which thus yields stable implicit gradients and nearly scale-insensitive runtime as the decision horizon grows. In experiments with real market data and two representative time-series prediction models, the IPMO method consistently outperforms the two-stage benchmarks in risk-adjusted performance net of transaction costs and achieves more coherent allocation paths. Our results show that integrating machine learning prediction with optimization in the multi-period setting improves financial outcomes and remains computationally tractable.

投资组合优化端到端学习金融机器学习可微优化

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